Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) Fair Value 2026

HTLD · Trucking (No Local) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (45/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) trades at $14.52, approximately 314% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $3.51. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 45/100 (WARN). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HTLD
Price
$14.52
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
45/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +255.2% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 45 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $7.14, 50.8% below the current price of $14.52. Estimates range from $1.09 to $51.57. HTLD scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 45/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Heartland Express, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.52)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $3.51 -75.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $8.41 -42.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $7.33 -49.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $51.57 +255.2%

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What Is Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Heartland Express, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $11.16. Trading at its current price of $14.52, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -23.1%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $51.57 (+255.2%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $1.09 (-92.5%). This +347.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Heartland Express, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HTLD?

12 of 13 models are currently active for HTLD. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HTLD's intrinsic value at $3.51, implying -75.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HTLD Rank in Trucking (No Local)?

Among 12 Trucking (No Local) stocks, HTLD ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

Heartland Express, Inc.'s positioning within the Trucking (No Local) segment means that fleet electrification pace plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including software-defined vehicle revenue — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HTLD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HTLD a score of 45/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Heartland Express, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Heartland Express, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +347.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HTLD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HTLD's 12 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Heartland Express, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking (No Local) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Trucking (No Local) stocks with 13-model coverage

SAIASaia, Inc.QOC 8.9LSTRLandstar System, Inc.QOC 8.8JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, IQOC 8.5SNDRSchneider National, Inc.QOC 8.2MRTNMarten Transport, Ltd.QOC 7.6KNXKnight-Swift Transportation HolQOC 7.3CVLGCovenant Logistics Group, Inc.QOC 7.3ULHUniversal Logistics Holdings, IQOC 7.2

Read investment analysis: SAIA · LSTR · JBHT · SNDR · MRTN

Frequently Asked Questions About Heartland Express, Inc.

What is Heartland Express, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $3.51. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HTLD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.52, 3 of 12 active models suggest HTLD may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $7.14, 50.8% below the current price of $14.52 — a consensus view that HTLD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Heartland Express, Inc.'s business model in Trucking (No Local).

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for HTLD?

Heartland Express, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HTLD?

CirclFi analyzes HTLD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HTLD a value trap in 2026?

Heartland Express, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 45/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) has a median fair value of $7.14 — 50.8% below the current price of $14.52 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HTLD/ · Methodology

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