Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) Fair Value 2026

HTLD · Trucking ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (56/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) trades at $12.18, versus a $9.04 median fair value across its 9 active models — 25.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 56/100 (WARN). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.99.

Key Facts

Ticker
HTLD
Price
$12.18
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
56/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +29.9% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 56 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $9.04, 25.8% below the current price of $12.18. Estimates range from $2.44 to $22.07. HTLD scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 56/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HTLD’s -25.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Heartland Express, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HTLD?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.99 -67.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.48 -71.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $9.04 -25.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $15.82 +29.9%
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What Is HTLD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $2.44 to $22.07

CirclFi's 9 active models place Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) between $2.44 and $22.07 per share, a spread of 217% of the median. The median of that range — $9.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HTLD, against a current price of $12.18.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.44median $9.04$22.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$2.44
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$22.07
Model agreement4 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HTLD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HTLD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Heartland Express, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $9.04. Trading at $12.18, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -25.8%), as 5 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $22.07 (+81.2%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $2.44 (-80.0%). This +161.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Heartland Express, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HTLD?

9 of 13 models are currently active for HTLD. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HTLD is $9.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.99 on its own, implying -67.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HTLD Rank in Trucking?

Among 17 Trucking stocks, HTLD ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

Heartland Express, Inc.'s positioning within the Trucking segment means that fleet electrification pace plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including software-defined vehicle revenue — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HTLD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HTLD a score of 56/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Heartland Express, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Heartland Express, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.6/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +161.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HTLD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HTLD's 9 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Heartland Express, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Trucking stocks with 13-model coverage

CVLGCovenant Logistics Group, Inc.QOC 6.8ULHUniversal Logistics Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4RXORXO, Inc.QOC 6.8TOPPToppoint Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4WERNWerner Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.8ETSElite Express Holding Inc.QOC 6.2PAMTPAMT CORPQOC 5.8SAIASaia, Inc.QOC 8.0MRTNMarten Transport, Ltd.QOC 7.3ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.QOC 8.6XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: CVLG · ULH · RXO · TOPP · WERN · ETS · PAMT · SAIA · MRTN · ODFL · XPO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HTLD?

7 companies across all industries closest to HTLD’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

ARQArq, Inc.QOC 6.6NTRBNutriband Inc.QOC 6.6AERTAeries Technology, IncQOC 6.6LAKELakeland Industries, Inc.QOC 6.6FRPHFRP Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6LEDSSemiLEDs CorporationQOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ARQ · NTRB · AERT · LAKE · FRPH · LEDS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Heartland Express, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Heartland Express, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD)'s intrinsic value at $9.04 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.44 to $22.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.99 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HTLD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.18, 4 of 9 active models suggest HTLD may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $9.04, 25.8% below the current price of $12.18 — a consensus view that HTLD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Heartland Express, Inc.'s business model in Trucking.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for HTLD?

Heartland Express, Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HTLD?

CirclFi analyzes HTLD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HTLD?

Of the 9 models currently active on HTLD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $22.07 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $2.44. CirclFi's published fair value for HTLD is the median of that range, $9.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 217% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HTLD a value trap in 2026?

Heartland Express, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 56/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) has a median fair value of $9.04 — 25.8% below the current price of $12.18 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HTLD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HTLD valuation
  • Financial statements: Heartland Express, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000799233) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HTLD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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