Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN) Fair Value 2026

WERN · Trucking ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN) trades at $32.81, versus a $30.76 median fair value across its 10 active models — 6.2% below the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $17.66.

Key Facts

Ticker
WERN
Price
$32.81
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +111.7% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $30.76, within 6.2% of the current price of $32.81. Estimates range from $3.33 to $124.34. WERN scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 42/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. WERN’s -6.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Trucking sector median is -31.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Werner Enterprises, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give WERN?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($32.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.66 -46.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.50 -71.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $28.82 -12.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $69.46 +111.7%
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What Is WERN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $3.33 to $124.34

CirclFi's 10 active models place Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN) between $3.33 and $124.34 per share, a spread of 393% of the median. The median of that range — $30.76 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for WERN, against a current price of $32.81.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$3.33median $30.76$124.34
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$3.33
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$124.34
Model agreement4 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for WERN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on WERN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Werner Enterprises, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $30.76, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $32.81. With a median implied return of -6.2% across a split 4–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +368.8% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +279.0% (fair value: $124.34), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -89.8% ($3.33). The spread between these extremes — +368.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About WERN?

10 of 13 models are currently active for WERN. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for WERN is $30.76 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $17.66 on its own, implying -46.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WERN Rank in Trucking?

Among 16 Trucking stocks, WERN ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

The Trucking sector introduces analytical considerations specific to vehicle manufacturer businesses. For Werner Enterprises, Inc., metrics like EV mix percentage provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is WERN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WERN a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Werner Enterprises, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Werner Enterprises, Inc. scores 6.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +368.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WERN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WERN's 10 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Werner Enterprises, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Trucking stocks with 13-model coverage

KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.QOC 7.3RXORXO, Inc.QOC 6.8MRTNMarten Transport, Ltd.QOC 7.3CVLGCovenant Logistics Group, Inc.QOC 6.7TFIITFI International Inc.QOC 7.6HTLDHeartland Express, Inc.QOC 6.5ULHUniversal Logistics Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.QOC 8.6ARCBArcBest CorporationQOC 7.7XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: KNX · RXO · MRTN · CVLG · TFII · HTLD · ULH · ODFL · ARCB · XPO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to WERN?

6 companies across all industries closest to WERN’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

SRESempraQOC 6.8OISOil States International, Inc.QOC 6.8GRABGrab Holdings LimitedQOC 6.8ICHRIchor Holdings, Ltd.QOC 6.8REAXReal REMAX Group Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SRE · OIS · GRAB · ICHR · REAX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Werner Enterprises, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Werner Enterprises, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN)'s intrinsic value at $30.76 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $3.33 to $124.34. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $17.66 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WERN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $32.81, 4 of 10 active models suggest WERN may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $30.76, within 6.2% of the current price of $32.81 — a consensus view that WERN is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Werner Enterprises, Inc.'s business model in Trucking.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for WERN?

Werner Enterprises, Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WERN?

CirclFi analyzes WERN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on WERN?

Of the 10 models currently active on WERN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $124.34 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $3.33. CirclFi's published fair value for WERN is the median of that range, $30.76, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 393% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is WERN a value trap in 2026?

Werner Enterprises, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN) has a median fair value of $30.76 — within 6.2% of the current price of $32.81 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/WERN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this WERN valuation
  • Financial statements: Werner Enterprises, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000793074) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for WERN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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