Kestrel Group Ltd (KG) Fair Value 2026

KG · Insurance - Reinsurance ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Kestrel Group Ltd (KG) trades at $7.57, versus a $24.52 median fair value across its 2 active models — 223.9% above the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KG
Price
$7.57
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +487.3% upside with 40% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Kestrel Group Ltd (KG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Kestrel Group Ltd (KG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $24.52, 223.9% above the current price of $7.57. Estimates range from $4.58 to $44.46. KG scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. KG’s +223.9% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Kestrel Group Ltd Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KG?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.58 -39.5%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $44.46 +487.3%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Kestrel Group Ltd (KG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kestrel Group Ltd presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $7.57. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $24.52 (+223.9% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 1 bullish models and 1 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $44.46 (+487.3%), versus Markov DDM at $4.58 (-39.5%). This +526.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About KG?

2 of 13 models are currently active for KG. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KG is $24.52 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KG Rank in Insurance - Reinsurance?

Among 8 Insurance - Reinsurance stocks, KG ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

Kestrel Group Ltd's positioning within the Insurance - Reinsurance segment means that loss ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including market share gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is KG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KG a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Kestrel Group Ltd. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Kestrel Group Ltd earns a quality score of 6.8/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +526.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KG's 2 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Kestrel Group Ltd Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Reinsurance Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

7 related Insurance - Reinsurance stocks with 13-model coverage

RNRRenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.QOC 9.4GLREGreenlight Capital Re, Ltd.QOC 9.1HGHamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.QOC 9.0EGEverest Group, Ltd.QOC 9.0RGAReinsurance Group of America, IncorporatedQOC 8.7SPNTSiriusPoint Ltd.QOC 8.2OXBROxbridge Re Holdings LimitedQOC 6.2

Read investment analysis: RNR · GLRE · HG · EG · RGA · SPNT · OXBR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KG?

7 companies across all industries closest to KG’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

UEICUniversal Electronics Inc.QOC 6.8EGBNEagle Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.8DDD3D Systems CorporationQOC 6.8WERNWerner Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.8NIUNiu TechnologiesQOC 6.8DOWDow Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: UEIC · EGBN · DDD · WERN · NIU · DOW · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Kestrel Group Ltd’s Valuation?

What is Kestrel Group Ltd's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Kestrel Group Ltd (KG)'s intrinsic value at $24.52 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.58 to $44.46. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.57, 1 of 2 active models suggest KG may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $24.52, 223.9% above the current price of $7.57 — a consensus view that KG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Kestrel Group Ltd's business model in Insurance - Reinsurance.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for KG?

Kestrel Group Ltd's QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KG?

CirclFi analyzes KG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is KG a value trap in 2026?

Kestrel Group Ltd's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Kestrel Group Ltd (KG) has a median fair value of $24.52 — 223.9% above the current price of $7.57 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KG valuation
  • Financial statements: Kestrel Group Ltd 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002055116) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KG as of ; valuations recomputed .