ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) Fair Value 2026

ARCB · Trucking ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) trades at $149.50, approximately 42% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $105.01. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARCB
Price
$149.50
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($149.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$105.01 -29.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$44.56 -70.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$73.42 -50.9%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$146.36 -2.1%

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What Is ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ArcBest Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $84.21. Trading at its current price of $149.50, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -43.7%. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +9.6% (fair value: $163.83), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -82.9% ($25.52). The spread between these extremes — +92.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ARCB?

13 of 13 models are currently active for ARCB. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ARCB's intrinsic value at $105.01, implying -29.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARCB Rank in Trucking?

Among 1 Trucking stocks, ARCB ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places ARCB in the top tier.

ArcBest Corporation's positioning within the Trucking segment means that units delivered plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including software-defined vehicle revenue — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ARCB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARCB a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for ArcBest Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, ArcBest Corporation earns a quality score of 9.1/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +92.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARCB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARCB's 13 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ArcBest Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Frequently Asked Questions About ArcBest Corporation

What is ArcBest Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $105.01. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARCB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $149.50, 2 of 13 active models suggest ARCB may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ArcBest Corporation's business model in Trucking.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for ARCB?

ArcBest Corporation's QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARCB?

CirclFi analyzes ARCB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ARCB a value trap in 2026?

ArcBest Corporation's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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