ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) Fair Value 2026

ARCB · Trucking ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) trades at $139.12, versus a $61.96 median fair value across its 12 active models — 55.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $56.61.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARCB
Price
$139.12
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +80.0% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $61.96, 55.5% below the current price of $139.12. Estimates range from $18.03 to $417.68. ARCB scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ARCB’s -55.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ArcBest Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARCB?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($139.12)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $56.61 -59.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.65 -72.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $72.95 -47.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $250.42 +80.0%
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What Is ARCB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $18.03 to $417.68

CirclFi's 12 active models place ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) between $18.03 and $417.68 per share, a spread of 645% of the median. The median of that range — $61.96 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ARCB, against a current price of $139.12.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$18.03median $61.96$417.68
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$18.03
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$417.68
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ARCB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ARCB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ArcBest Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $61.96. Trading at $139.12, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -55.5%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +200.2% (fair value: $417.68), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -87.0% ($18.03). The spread between these extremes — +287.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ARCB?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ARCB. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ARCB is $61.96 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $56.61 on its own, implying -59.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARCB Rank in Trucking?

Among 15 Trucking stocks, ARCB ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

ArcBest Corporation's positioning within the Trucking segment means that units delivered plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including software-defined vehicle revenue — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ARCB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARCB a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for ArcBest Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, ArcBest Corporation earns a quality score of 7.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +287.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARCB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARCB's 12 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ArcBest Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Trucking stocks with 13-model coverage

SNDRSchneider National, Inc.QOC 7.8TFIITFI International Inc.QOC 7.6SAIASaia, Inc.QOC 8.0MRTNMarten Transport, Ltd.QOC 7.3XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.QOC 7.3ULHUniversal Logistics Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: SNDR · TFII · SAIA · MRTN · XPO · KNX · ULH · ODFL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARCB?

7 companies across all industries closest to ARCB’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

ROCKGibraltar Industries, Inc.QOC 7.7MDLNMedline Inc.QOC 7.7VLYValley National BancorpQOC 7.7DBDDiebold Nixdorf, IncorporatedQOC 7.7SPFXStandard Premium Finance Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ROCK · MDLN · VLY · DBD · SPFX · SWK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ArcBest Corporation’s Valuation?

What is ArcBest Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ArcBest Corporation (ARCB)'s intrinsic value at $61.96 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $18.03 to $417.68. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $56.61 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARCB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $139.12, 3 of 12 active models suggest ARCB may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $61.96, 55.5% below the current price of $139.12 — a consensus view that ARCB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ArcBest Corporation's business model in Trucking.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for ARCB?

ArcBest Corporation's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARCB?

CirclFi analyzes ARCB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ARCB?

Of the 12 models currently active on ARCB, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $417.68 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $18.03. CirclFi's published fair value for ARCB is the median of that range, $61.96, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 645% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ARCB a value trap in 2026?

ArcBest Corporation's Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) has a median fair value of $61.96 — 55.5% below the current price of $139.12 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARCB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARCB valuation
  • Financial statements: ArcBest Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000894405) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARCB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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