Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH) Fair Value 2026

ULH · Trucking ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH) trades at $18.94, versus a $24.65 median fair value across its 8 active models — 30.2% above the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ULH
Price
$18.94
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +36.7% upside with 14% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $24.65, 30.2% above the current price of $18.94. Estimates range from $3.84 to $50.60. ULH scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ULH’s +30.2% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ULH?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($18.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.41 +23.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $25.89 +36.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $15.19 -19.8%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $17.04 -10.0%
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What Is ULH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $3.84 to $50.60

CirclFi's 8 active models place Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH) between $3.84 and $50.60 per share, a spread of 190% of the median. The median of that range — $24.65 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ULH, against a current price of $18.94.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Regime Cross
$3.84median $24.65$50.60
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$3.84
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$50.60
Model agreement5 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ULH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ULH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $24.65, suggesting a +30.2% median upside from the current price of $18.94. While 5 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $50.60 (+167.2%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $3.84 (-79.7%). This +246.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ULH?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ULH. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ULH is $24.65 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ULH Rank in Trucking?

Among 15 Trucking stocks, ULH ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

As a transportation company, Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where fleet electrification pace is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ULH should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ULH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ULH a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. is rated at 6.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +246.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ULH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ULH's 8 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Trucking stocks with 13-model coverage

HTLDHeartland Express, Inc.QOC 6.6ETSElite Express Holding Inc.QOC 6.2RXORXO, Inc.QOC 6.8PAMTPAMT CORPQOC 5.8WERNWerner Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.8TLSSTransportation and Logistics Systems, Inc.QOC 3.9SNDRSchneider National, Inc.QOC 7.8KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.QOC 7.3ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.QOC 8.6XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: HTLD · ETS · RXO · PAMT · WERN · TLSS · SNDR · KNX · ODFL · XPO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ULH?

7 companies across all industries closest to ULH’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

PKXPOSCO Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4LMNRLimoneira CompanyQOC 6.4PEWGrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4GBRNew Concept Energy, Inc.QOC 6.4DLTHDuluth Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4CAGConagra Brands, Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PKX · LMNR · PEW · GBR · DLTH · CAG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH)'s intrinsic value at $24.65 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.84 to $50.60. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ULH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $18.94, 5 of 8 active models suggest ULH may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $24.65, 30.2% above the current price of $18.94 — a consensus view that ULH is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Trucking.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for ULH?

Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ULH?

CirclFi analyzes ULH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ULH?

Of the 8 models currently active on ULH, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $50.60 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $3.84. CirclFi's published fair value for ULH is the median of that range, $24.65, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 190% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ULH a value trap in 2026?

Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH) has a median fair value of $24.65 — 30.2% above the current price of $18.94 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ULH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ULH valuation
  • Financial statements: Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001308208) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ULH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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