Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) Fair Value 2026

REFI · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (45/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) trades at $10.67, versus a $13.17 median fair value across its 7 active models — 23.4% above the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 45/100 (WARN). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
REFI
Price
$10.67
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
45/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +23.4% upside with 45% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 45 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $13.17, 23.4% above the current price of $10.67. Estimates range from $3.02 to $22.22. REFI scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 45/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. REFI’s +23.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give REFI?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.03 +12.8%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $10.42 -2.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $13.17 +23.4%
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What Is REFI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $3.02 to $22.22

CirclFi's 7 active models place Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) between $3.02 and $22.22 per share, a spread of 146% of the median. The median of that range — $13.17 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for REFI, against a current price of $10.67.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$3.02median $13.17$22.22
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$3.02
Most bullish modelPWERM$22.22
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for REFI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on REFI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. at $10.67. With an estimated intrinsic value of $13.17 and 5 of 7 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +23.4%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $22.22 (+108.2%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $3.02 (-71.7%). This +179.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About REFI?

7 of 13 models are currently active for REFI. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for REFI is $13.17 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does REFI Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, REFI ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

The REIT - Mortgage sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate businesses. For Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc., metrics like net asset value (NAV) premium/discount provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is REFI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns REFI a score of 45/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. scores 7.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +179.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every REFI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across REFI's 7 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

DXDynex Capital, Inc.QOC 7.9SUNSSunrise Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.6IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc.QOC 8.0LOANManhattan Bridge Capital, Inc.QOC 7.5EFCEllington Financial Inc.QOC 8.1AOMRAngel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.QOC 7.5LADRLadder Capital CorpQOC 7.2RCReady Capital CorporationQOC 6.0ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: DX · SUNS · IVR · LOAN · EFC · AOMR · LADR · RC · ORC · FBRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to REFI?

7 companies across all industries closest to REFI’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

CSXCSX CorporationQOC 7.6BEBloom Energy CorporationQOC 7.6CINTCI&T Inc.QOC 7.6MAXMediaAlpha, Inc.QOC 7.6MVSTMicrovast Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6WIXWix.com Ltd.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CSX · BE · CINT · MAX · MVST · WIX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI)'s intrinsic value at $13.17 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.02 to $22.22. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is REFI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.67, 5 of 7 active models suggest REFI may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $13.17, 23.4% above the current price of $10.67 — a consensus view that REFI is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for REFI?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on REFI?

CirclFi analyzes REFI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on REFI?

Of the 7 models currently active on REFI, PWERM is the most bullish at $22.22 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $3.02. CirclFi's published fair value for REFI is the median of that range, $13.17, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 146% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is REFI a value trap in 2026?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 45/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) has a median fair value of $13.17 — 23.4% above the current price of $10.67 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/REFI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this REFI valuation

Market data for REFI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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