Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi (REFI) Fair Value 2026

REFI · Real Estate Investment Trusts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi (REFI) trades at $10.73, approximately 70% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $36.09. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
REFI
Price
$10.73
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +236.4% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.73)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $36.09 +236.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $14.53 +35.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $28.92 +169.5%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $34.42 +220.7%

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What Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi (REFI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi. Trading at $10.73 against an estimated intrinsic value of $26.41, 11 of 12 active models flag meaningful upside of +146.1% on average. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $55.87 (+420.6%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $4.79 (-55.4%). This +476.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About REFI?

12 of 13 models are currently active for REFI. Of these, 11 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates REFI's intrinsic value at $36.09, implying +236.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does REFI Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Among 183 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, REFI ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places REFI in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →

The Real Estate Investment Trusts sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate businesses. For Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi, metrics like net asset value (NAV) premium/discount provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is REFI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns REFI a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +476.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every REFI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across REFI's 12 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks with 13-model coverage

CUBECubeSmartQOC 9.5EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.QOC 9.2SELFGlobal Self Storage, Inc.QOC 9.1EPRTEssential Properties Realty TruQOC 8.9HHHHoward Hughes Holdings Inc.QOC 8.8PSAPublic StorageQOC 8.7NSANational Storage Affiliates TruQOC 8.6ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: CUBE · EGP · SELF · EPRT · HHH

See all Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi

What is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi (REFI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $36.09. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is REFI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.73, 11 of 12 active models suggest REFI may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi's business model in Real Estate Investment Trusts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for REFI?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on REFI?

CirclFi analyzes REFI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is REFI a value trap in 2026?

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Fi's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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