Sempra (SRE) Fair Value 2026

SRE · Utilities - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Sempra (SRE) trades at $84.31, versus a $47.55 median fair value across its 10 active models — 43.6% below the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $71.74.

Key Facts

Ticker
SRE
Price
$84.31
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Sempra (SRE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Sempra (SRE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $47.55, 43.6% below the current price of $84.31. Estimates range from $1.07 to $118.37. SRE scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SRE’s -43.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Sempra Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SRE?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($84.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $71.74 -14.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $46.84 -44.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.59 -86.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $25.64 -69.6%
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What Is SRE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.07 to $118.37

CirclFi's 10 active models place Sempra (SRE) between $1.07 and $118.37 per share, a spread of 247% of the median. The median of that range — $47.55 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SRE, against a current price of $84.31.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · PWERM
$1.07median $47.55$118.37
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$1.07
Most bullish modelPWERM$118.37
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SRE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SRE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Sempra (SRE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sempra's intrinsic value is estimated at $47.55. Trading at its current price of $84.31, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -43.6%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $118.37 (+40.4%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $1.07 (-98.7%). This +139.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Sempra's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SRE?

10 of 13 models are currently active for SRE. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SRE is $47.55 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $71.74 on its own, implying -14.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SRE Rank in Utilities - Diversified?

Among 5 Utilities - Diversified stocks, SRE ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

Sempra's positioning within the Utilities - Diversified segment means that regulatory lag plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including clean energy transition investment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SRE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SRE a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Sempra. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sempra scores 6.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +139.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SRE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SRE's 10 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sempra Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Utilities - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

AESThe AES CorporationQOC 7.7AVAAvista CorporationQOC 7.4UTLUnitil CorporationQOC 7.2AQNAlgonquin Power & Utilities Corp.QOC 3.2

Read investment analysis: AES · AVA · UTL · AQN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SRE?

7 companies across all industries closest to SRE’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

SGASaga Communications, Inc.QOC 6.8PHIPLDT Inc.QOC 6.8RAYRaytech Holding LimitedQOC 6.8MGPIMGP Ingredients, Inc.QOC 6.8EGYVAALCO Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8REIRing Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SGA · PHI · RAY · MGPI · EGY · REI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Sempra’s Valuation?

What is Sempra's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Sempra (SRE)'s intrinsic value at $47.55 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.07 to $118.37. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $71.74 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SRE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $84.31, 2 of 10 active models suggest SRE may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $47.55, 43.6% below the current price of $84.31 — a consensus view that SRE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sempra's business model in Utilities - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for SRE?

Sempra's QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SRE?

CirclFi analyzes SRE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SRE?

Of the 10 models currently active on SRE, PWERM is the most bullish at $118.37 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $1.07. CirclFi's published fair value for SRE is the median of that range, $47.55, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 247% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SRE a value trap in 2026?

Sempra's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Sempra (SRE) has a median fair value of $47.55 — 43.6% below the current price of $84.31 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SRE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SRE valuation
  • Financial statements: Sempra 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001032208) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SRE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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