OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) Fair Value 2026

OPAL · Utilities - Regulated Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) trades at $2.06, versus a $3.05 median fair value across its 6 active models — 47.8% above the current price. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.93.

Key Facts

Ticker
OPAL
Price
$2.06
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +90.8% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $3.05, 47.8% above the current price of $2.06. Estimates range from $0.04 to $3.93. OPAL scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. OPAL’s +47.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Gas sector median is -36.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy OPAL Fuels Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OPAL?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.06)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.93 +90.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $2.33 +13.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.04 -98.0%
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What Is OPAL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $0.04 to $3.93

CirclFi's 6 active models place OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) between $0.04 and $3.93 per share, a spread of 128% of the median. The median of that range — $3.05 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OPAL, against a current price of $2.06.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Bayesian DCF
$0.04median $3.05$3.93
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$0.04
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$3.93
Model agreement4 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OPAL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OPAL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on OPAL Fuels Inc. at $2.06. With an estimated intrinsic value of $3.05 and 4 of 6 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +47.8%. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $3.93 (+90.8%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $0.04 (-98.0%). This +188.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about OPAL Fuels Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About OPAL?

6 of 13 models are currently active for OPAL. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OPAL is $3.05 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.93 on its own, implying +90.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OPAL Rank in Utilities - Regulated Gas?

Among 16 Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, OPAL ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

OPAL Fuels Inc.'s positioning within the Utilities - Regulated Gas segment means that reserve replacement ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including basin-level economics — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is OPAL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OPAL a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for OPAL Fuels Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, OPAL Fuels Inc. earns a quality score of 6.0/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +188.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OPAL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OPAL's 6 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy OPAL Fuels Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

CTRICenturi Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2NJRNew Jersey Resources CorporationQOC 8.4MDUMDU Resources Group, Inc.QOC 6.3UGIUGI CorporationQOC 8.0BKHBlack Hills CorporationQOC 6.9ATOAtmos Energy CorporationQOC 7.9SPHSuburban Propane Partners, L.P.QOC 7.8RGCORGC Resources, Inc.QOC 7.3NWNNorthwest Natural Holding CompanyQOC 6.9

Read investment analysis: CTRI · NJR · MDU · UGI · BKH · ATO · SPH · RGCO · NWN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OPAL?

7 companies across all industries closest to OPAL’s Quality of Company score of 6.0/10.

SDCHSideChannel, Inc.QOC 6.0PRMPerimeter Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.0SBDSSolo Brands, Inc.QOC 6.0BTCYBiotricity, Inc.QOC 6.0WKSPWorksport Ltd.QOC 6.0MAKOMako Mining Corp.QOC 6.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SDCH · PRM · SBDS · BTCY · WKSP · MAKO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About OPAL Fuels Inc.’s Valuation?

What is OPAL Fuels Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL)'s intrinsic value at $3.05 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.04 to $3.93. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.93 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OPAL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.06, 4 of 6 active models suggest OPAL may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $3.05, 47.8% above the current price of $2.06 — a consensus view that OPAL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits OPAL Fuels Inc.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for OPAL?

OPAL Fuels Inc.'s QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OPAL?

CirclFi analyzes OPAL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OPAL?

Of the 6 models currently active on OPAL, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $3.93 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $0.04. CirclFi's published fair value for OPAL is the median of that range, $3.05, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 128% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OPAL a value trap in 2026?

OPAL Fuels Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) has a median fair value of $3.05 — 47.8% above the current price of $2.06 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OPAL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OPAL valuation
  • Financial statements: OPAL Fuels Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001842279) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OPAL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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