Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN) Fair Value 2026

HGYN · Integrated Freight & Logistics ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN) trades at $0.04, versus a $0.02 median fair value across its 7 active models — 43.5% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.00.

Key Facts

Ticker
HGYN
Price
$0.04
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $0.02, 43.5% below the current price of $0.04. Estimates range from $0.00 to $0.04. HGYN scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HGYN’s -43.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Integrated Freight & Logistics sector median is -39.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hong Yuan Holding Group Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HGYN?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $0.00 -88.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $0.02 -43.5%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $0.03 -15.5%
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What Is HGYN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $0.00 to $0.04

CirclFi's 7 active models place Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN) between $0.00 and $0.04 per share, a spread of 173% of the median. The median of that range — $0.02 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HGYN, against a current price of $0.04.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$0.00median $0.02$0.04
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.00
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$0.04
Model agreement1 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HGYN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HGYN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hong Yuan Holding Group's intrinsic value is estimated at $0.02. Trading at its current price of $0.04, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 7 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -43.5%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +9.1% (fair value: $0.04), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -88.8% ($0.00). The spread between these extremes — +97.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About HGYN?

7 of 13 models are currently active for HGYN. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HGYN is $0.02 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.00 on its own, implying -88.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HGYN Rank in Integrated Freight & Logistics?

Among 37 Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, HGYN ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

Hong Yuan Holding Group's positioning within the Integrated Freight & Logistics segment means that units delivered plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including software-defined vehicle revenue — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HGYN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HGYN a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Hong Yuan Holding Group. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Hong Yuan Holding Group earns a quality score of 6.6/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +97.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HGYN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HGYN's 7 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hong Yuan Holding Group Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Integrated Freight & Logistics Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks with 13-model coverage

FWRDForward Air CorporationQOC 6.6JYDJayud Global Logistics LimitedQOC 6.2CYRXCryoport, Inc.QOC 6.9SLGBSmart Logistics Global LimitedQOC 6.1FDXFFedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.QOC 7.2APSIAqua Power Systems Inc.QOC 5.9CRGOFreightos LimitedQOC 5.6GVHGlobavend Holdings LimitedQOC 2.7JANLJanel CorporationQOC 8.1ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.QOC 8.8FDXFedEx CorporationQOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: FWRD · JYD · CYRX · SLGB · FDXF · APSI · CRGO · GVH · JANL · ZTO · FDX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HGYN?

7 companies across all industries closest to HGYN’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

BBDCBarings BDC, Inc.QOC 6.6MXLMaxLinear, Inc.QOC 6.6MITQMoving iMage Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.6HHyatt Hotels CorporationQOC 6.6SERASera Prognostics, Inc.QOC 6.6FRPHFRP Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BBDC · MXL · MITQ · H · SERA · FRPH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hong Yuan Holding Group’s Valuation?

What is Hong Yuan Holding Group's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN)'s intrinsic value at $0.02 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.00 to $0.04. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.00 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HGYN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.04, 1 of 7 active models suggest HGYN may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $0.02, 43.5% below the current price of $0.04 — a consensus view that HGYN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hong Yuan Holding Group's business model in Integrated Freight & Logistics.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for HGYN?

Hong Yuan Holding Group's QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HGYN?

CirclFi analyzes HGYN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HGYN?

Of the 7 models currently active on HGYN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $0.04 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.00. CirclFi's published fair value for HGYN is the median of that range, $0.02, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 173% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HGYN a value trap in 2026?

Hong Yuan Holding Group's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Hong Yuan Holding Group (HGYN) has a median fair value of $0.02 — 43.5% below the current price of $0.04 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HGYN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HGYN valuation
  • Financial statements: Hong Yuan Holding Group 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001324759) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HGYN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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