Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) Fair Value 2026

OPEN · Real Estate Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) trades at $3.38, versus a $3.12 median fair value across its 6 active models — 7.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.80.

Key Facts

Ticker
OPEN
Price
$3.38
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +1.6% upside with 5% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $3.12, within 7.8% of the current price of $3.38. Estimates range from $0.73 to $9.91. OPEN scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. OPEN’s -7.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Real Estate Services sector median is -12.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Opendoor Technologies Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OPEN?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.80 -17.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.43 +1.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.73 -78.4%
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What Is OPEN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $0.73 to $9.91

CirclFi's 6 active models place Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) between $0.73 and $9.91 per share, a spread of 295% of the median. The median of that range — $3.12 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OPEN, against a current price of $3.38.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$0.73median $3.12$9.91
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.73
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$9.91
Model agreement2 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OPEN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OPEN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Opendoor Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $3.12, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $3.38. While the median implied return is -7.8%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +271.7% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $9.91 (+193.3%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.73 (-78.4%). This +271.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Opendoor Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About OPEN?

6 of 13 models are currently active for OPEN. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OPEN is $3.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.80 on its own, implying -17.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OPEN Rank in Real Estate Services?

Among 51 Real Estate Services stocks, OPEN ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Real Estate Services sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate businesses. For Opendoor Technologies Inc., metrics like funds from operations (FFO) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is OPEN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OPEN a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Opendoor Technologies Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Opendoor Technologies Inc. scores 6.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +271.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OPEN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OPEN's 6 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Opendoor Technologies Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Real Estate Services stocks with 13-model coverage

MMIMarcus & Millichap, Inc.QOC 6.7MLPMaui Land & Pineapple Company, Inc.QOC 6.6REAXReal REMAX Group Inc.QOC 6.8FRPHFRP Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6BEKEKE Holdings Inc.QOC 7.1TCITranscontinental Realty Investors, Inc.QOC 6.5ZDPYZoned Properties, Inc.QOC 5.7ABCPAmBase CorporationQOC 4.4AOXYAdvanced Oxygen Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.8CHCIComstock Holding Companies, Inc.QOC 8.9IRSIRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad AnónimaQOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: MMI · MLP · REAX · FRPH · BEKE · TCI · ZDPY · ABCP · AOXY · CHCI · IRS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OPEN?

7 companies across all industries closest to OPEN’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

AMBOAmbow Education Holding Ltd. AmQOC 6.6MTRXMatrix Service CompanyQOC 6.6REREATRenew Inc.QOC 6.6LINKInterlink Electronics, Inc.QOC 6.6FWRDForward Air CorporationQOC 6.6SMFGSumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.QOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AMBO · MTRX · RERE · LINK · FWRD · SMFG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Opendoor Technologies Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Opendoor Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN)'s intrinsic value at $3.12 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.73 to $9.91. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.80 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OPEN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.38, 3 of 6 active models suggest OPEN may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $3.12, within 7.8% of the current price of $3.38 — a consensus view that OPEN is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Opendoor Technologies Inc.'s business model in Real Estate Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for OPEN?

Opendoor Technologies Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OPEN?

CirclFi analyzes OPEN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OPEN?

Of the 6 models currently active on OPEN, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $9.91 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.73. CirclFi's published fair value for OPEN is the median of that range, $3.12, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 295% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OPEN a value trap in 2026?

Opendoor Technologies Inc.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) has a median fair value of $3.12 — within 7.8% of the current price of $3.38 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OPEN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OPEN valuation
  • Financial statements: Opendoor Technologies Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001801169) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OPEN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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