American Realty Investors, Inc. (ARL) Fair Value 2026

ARL · Real Estate Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, American Realty Investors, Inc. (ARL) trades at $15.00, versus a $15.45 median fair value across its 6 active models — 3.0% above the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARL
Price
$15.00
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +2.4% upside with 6% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is American Realty Investors, Inc. (ARL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, American Realty Investors, Inc. (ARL) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $15.45, within 3.0% of the current price of $15.00. Estimates range from $7.48 to $44.56. ARL scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 32/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ARL’s +3.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Real Estate Services sector median is -6.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy American Realty Investors, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARL?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $15.37 +2.4%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $7.48 -50.1%
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
 $9.20 -38.7%
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What Is ARL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $7.48 to $44.56

CirclFi's 6 active models place American Realty Investors, Inc. (ARL) between $7.48 and $44.56 per share, a spread of 240% of the median. The median of that range — $15.45 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ARL, against a current price of $15.00.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$7.48median $15.45$44.56
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$7.48
Most bullish modelPWERM$44.56
Model agreement2 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ARL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ARL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is American Realty Investors, Inc. (ARL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, American Realty Investors, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $15.45, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $15.00. With a median implied return of +3.0% across a split 2–2 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +247.2% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +197.0% (fair value: $44.56), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -50.1% ($7.48). The spread between these extremes — +247.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ARL?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ARL. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ARL is $15.45 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARL Rank in Real Estate Services?

Among 52 Real Estate Services stocks, ARL ranks #25 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Real Estate Services space, American Realty Investors, Inc. competes in an environment where net asset value (NAV) premium/discount often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ARL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARL a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for American Realty Investors, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, American Realty Investors, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +247.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARL's 6 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy American Realty Investors, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Real Estate Services stocks with 13-model coverage

GBRNew Concept Energy, Inc.QOC 6.4MAYSJ.W. Mays, Inc.QOC 6.3TCITranscontinental Realty Investors, Inc.QOC 6.5OMHOhmyhome LimitedQOC 6.1FRPHFRP Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6COMPCompass, Inc.QOC 5.9STHOStar HoldingsQOC 5.2PETZTDH Holdings, Inc.QOC 2.9LHAILinkhome Holdings Inc.QOC 7.5CHCIComstock Holding Companies, Inc.QOC 8.9IRSIRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad AnónimaQOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: GBR · MAYS · TCI · OMH · FRPH · COMP · STHO · PETZ · LHAI · CHCI · IRS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARL?

7 companies across all industries closest to ARL’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

SXCSunCoke Energy, Inc.QOC 6.4UUUUEnergy Fuels Inc.QOC 6.4IONSIonis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.4AVALGrupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.QOC 6.4TRSGTungray Technologies Inc.QOC 6.4AWHLAspira Women's Health Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SXC · UUUU · IONS · AVAL · TRSG · AWHL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About American Realty Investors, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is American Realty Investors, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts American Realty Investors, Inc. (ARL)'s intrinsic value at $15.45 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $7.48 to $44.56. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.00, 4 of 6 active models suggest ARL may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $15.45, within 3.0% of the current price of $15.00 — a consensus view that ARL is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits American Realty Investors, Inc.'s business model in Real Estate Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for ARL?

American Realty Investors, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARL?

CirclFi analyzes ARL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ARL?

Of the 6 models currently active on ARL, PWERM is the most bullish at $44.56 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $7.48. CirclFi's published fair value for ARL is the median of that range, $15.45, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 240% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ARL a value trap in 2026?

American Realty Investors, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, American Realty Investors, Inc. (ARL) has a median fair value of $15.45 — within 3.0% of the current price of $15.00 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARL valuation
  • Financial statements: American Realty Investors, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001102238) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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