Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) Fair Value 2026

ARE · Real Estate Investment Trusts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) trades at $47.50, approximately 59% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $115.71. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARE
Price
$47.50
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +143.6% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($47.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $115.71 +143.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $57.98 +22.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $53.16 +11.9%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
 $42.38 -10.8%

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What Is Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alexandria Real Estate Equities's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $51.37, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $47.50. While the average implied return is +8.1%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +213.9% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $115.71 (+143.6%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $14.09 (-70.3%). This +213.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Alexandria Real Estate Equities's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ARE?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ARE. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ARE's intrinsic value at $115.71, implying +143.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARE Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Among 190 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, ARE ranks #59 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →

The Real Estate Investment Trusts sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate businesses. For Alexandria Real Estate Equities, metrics like net asset value (NAV) premium/discount provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ARE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARE a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Alexandria Real Estate Equities. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Alexandria Real Estate Equities earns a quality score of 7.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +213.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARE's 12 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alexandria Real Estate Equities Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks with 13-model coverage

CUBECubeSmartQOC 9.5EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.QOC 9.2SELFGlobal Self Storage, Inc.QOC 9.1APLEApple Hospitality REIT, Inc.QOC 8.9EPRTEssential Properties Realty TruQOC 8.9HHHHoward Hughes Holdings Inc.QOC 8.8PSAPublic StorageQOC 8.7NSANational Storage Affiliates TruQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: CUBE · EGP · SELF · APLE · EPRT

See all Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Alexandria Real Estate Equities

What is Alexandria Real Estate Equities's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $115.71. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $47.50, 7 of 12 active models suggest ARE may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alexandria Real Estate Equities's business model in Real Estate Investment Trusts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for ARE?

Alexandria Real Estate Equities's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARE?

CirclFi analyzes ARE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ARE a value trap in 2026?

Alexandria Real Estate Equities's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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