Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) Fair Value 2026

ONL · REIT - Office ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (34/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) trades at $2.84, versus a $4.09 median fair value across its 5 active models — 44.1% above the current price. QOC: 5.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 34/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ONL
Price
$2.84
Quality Score
5.8/10
Value Trap Risk
34/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +44.1% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $4.09, 44.1% above the current price of $2.84. Estimates range from $0.35 to $12.50. ONL scores 5.8/10 on fundamental quality and 34/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ONL’s +44.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Office sector median is -3.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Orion Properties Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ONL?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.09 +44.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.35 -87.7%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 3 additional models including Dynamic NAV, PWERM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 5 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ONL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $0.35 to $12.50

CirclFi's 5 active models place Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) between $0.35 and $12.50 per share, a spread of 297% of the median. The median of that range — $4.09 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ONL, against a current price of $2.84.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · PWERM
$0.35median $4.09$12.50
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$0.35
Most bullish modelPWERM$12.50
Model agreement4 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ONL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ONL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Orion Properties Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $2.84. Based on our 13-model framework, Orion Properties Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $4.09 — representing +44.1% implied upside — with 4 out of 5 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $12.50 (+340.0%), versus Markov DDM at $0.35 (-87.7%). This +427.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ONL?

5 of 13 models are currently active for ONL. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ONL is $4.09 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ONL Rank in REIT - Office?

Among 22 REIT - Office stocks, ONL ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

As a real estate investment trust, Orion Properties Inc. operates in a sector where capitalization rate (cap rate) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ONL should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ONL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ONL a score of 34/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Orion Properties Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Orion Properties Inc. is rated at 5.8/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +427.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ONL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ONL's 5 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Orion Properties Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Office Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Office stocks with 13-model coverage

BDNBrandywine Realty TrustQOC 5.9HPPHudson Pacific Properties, Inc.QOC 5.5NLOPNet Lease Office PropertiesQOC 6.2FSPFranklin Street Properties Corp.QOC 5.4SLGSL Green Realty Corp.QOC 6.3PDMPiedmont Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 5.4OPIOffice Properties Income TrustQOC 4.4FISKEmpire State Realty OP, L.P.QOC 7.3DEAEasterly Government Properties, Inc.QOC 6.8PSTLPostal Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.3KRCKilroy Realty CorporationQOC 8.1

Read investment analysis: BDN · HPP · NLOP · FSP · SLG · PDM · OPI · FISK · DEA · PSTL · KRC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ONL?

7 companies across all industries closest to ONL’s Quality of Company score of 5.8/10.

GPMTGranite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.QOC 5.8RLEARubber Leaf Inc.QOC 5.8OZVNOZ Vision Inc.QOC 5.8FVNFuture Vision II Acquisition Corp.QOC 5.8ABSIAbsci CorporationQOC 5.8ATSATS CorporationQOC 5.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GPMT · RLEA · OZVN · FVN · ABSI · ATS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Orion Properties Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Orion Properties Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Orion Properties Inc. (ONL)'s intrinsic value at $4.09 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.35 to $12.50. The Quality of Company score is 5.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ONL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.84, 4 of 5 active models suggest ONL may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $4.09, 44.1% above the current price of $2.84 — a consensus view that ONL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Orion Properties Inc.'s business model in REIT - Office.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.8 mean for ONL?

Orion Properties Inc.'s QOC of 5.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ONL?

CirclFi analyzes ONL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ONL?

Of the 5 models currently active on ONL, PWERM is the most bullish at $12.50 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $0.35. CirclFi's published fair value for ONL is the median of that range, $4.09, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 297% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ONL a value trap in 2026?

Orion Properties Inc.'s Value Trap score is 34/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) has a median fair value of $4.09 — 44.1% above the current price of $2.84 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ONL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ONL valuation
  • Financial statements: Orion Properties Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001873923) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ONL as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 5 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ONL.

Unlock All 5 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

3 models hidden for ONL Unlock All 5 — $39/mo