Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) Fair Value 2026

ONL · Real Estate Investment Trusts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) trades at $2.65. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ONL
Price
$2.65
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +162.0% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $3.58, 35.2% above the current price of $2.65. Estimates range from $1.13 to $13.20. ONL scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Orion Properties Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.65)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $6.95 +162.0%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $2.16 -18.7%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
 $1.13 -57.4%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
 $2.73 +3.0%

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What Is Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Orion Properties Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $2.65. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $4.80 (+80.8% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 3 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $13.20 (+397.9%), versus Markov DDM at $1.13 (-57.4%). This +455.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ONL?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ONL. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ONL Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Among 182 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, ONL ranks #121 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →

As a real estate investment trust, Orion Properties Inc. operates in a sector where capitalization rate (cap rate) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ONL should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ONL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ONL a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Orion Properties Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Orion Properties Inc. is rated at 6.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +455.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ONL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ONL's 11 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Orion Properties Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks with 13-model coverage

CUBECubeSmartQOC 9.5EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.QOC 9.2SELFGlobal Self Storage, Inc.QOC 9.1EPRTEssential Properties Realty TruQOC 8.9HHHHoward Hughes Holdings Inc.QOC 8.8PSAPublic StorageQOC 8.7NSANational Storage Affiliates TruQOC 8.6ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: CUBE · EGP · SELF · EPRT · HHH

See all Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Orion Properties Inc.

What is Orion Properties Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ONL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.65, 8 of 11 active models suggest ONL may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $3.58, 35.2% above the current price of $2.65 — a consensus view that ONL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Orion Properties Inc.'s business model in Real Estate Investment Trusts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for ONL?

Orion Properties Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ONL?

CirclFi analyzes ONL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ONL a value trap in 2026?

Orion Properties Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) has a median fair value of $3.58 — 35.2% above the current price of $2.65 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ONL/ · Methodology

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