Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) Fair Value 2026

DOUG · Real Estate Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) trades at $1.83, versus a $3.14 median fair value across its 8 active models — 71.4% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.41.

Key Facts

Ticker
DOUG
Price
$1.83
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +83.4% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $3.14, 71.4% above the current price of $1.83. Estimates range from $0.41 to $6.69. DOUG scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. DOUG’s +71.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Real Estate Services sector median is -6.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Douglas Elliman Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DOUG?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.83)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $0.41 -77.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.36 +83.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.36 -25.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.12 -39.0%
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What Is DOUG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.41 to $6.69

CirclFi's 8 active models place Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) between $0.41 and $6.69 per share, a spread of 200% of the median. The median of that range — $3.14 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DOUG, against a current price of $1.83.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$0.41median $3.14$6.69
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.41
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$6.69
Model agreement5 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DOUG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DOUG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Douglas Elliman Inc. at $1.83. With an estimated intrinsic value of $3.14 and 5 of 8 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +71.4%. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $6.69 (+265.5%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.41 (-77.5%). This +343.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Douglas Elliman Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About DOUG?

8 of 13 models are currently active for DOUG. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DOUG is $3.14 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.41 on its own, implying -77.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DOUG Rank in Real Estate Services?

Among 52 Real Estate Services stocks, DOUG ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Real Estate Services space, Douglas Elliman Inc. competes in an environment where net asset value (NAV) premium/discount often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is DOUG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DOUG a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Douglas Elliman Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Douglas Elliman Inc. is rated at 7.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +343.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DOUG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DOUG's 8 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Douglas Elliman Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Real Estate Services stocks with 13-model coverage

AGNTAGNT, IncQOC 7.3NMRKNewmark Group, Inc.QOC 7.2RMRThe RMR Group Inc.QOC 7.3BEKEKE Holdings Inc.QOC 7.1LHAILinkhome Holdings Inc.QOC 7.5REAXReal REMAX Group Inc.QOC 6.8COMPCompass, Inc.QOC 5.9UKUcommune International LtdQOC 4.8IRSIRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad AnónimaQOC 8.4CHCIComstock Holding Companies, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: AGNT · NMRK · RMR · BEKE · LHAI · REAX · COMP · UK · IRS · CHCI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DOUG?

7 companies across all industries closest to DOUG’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

SKKYSkkynet Cloud Systems, Inc.QOC 7.2DECDiversified Energy CompanyQOC 7.2MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.QOC 7.2GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.QOC 7.2RFILRF Industries, Ltd.QOC 7.3AEBIAebi Schmidt Holding AGQOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SKKY · DEC · MRCY · GHG · RFIL · AEBI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Douglas Elliman Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Douglas Elliman Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG)'s intrinsic value at $3.14 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.41 to $6.69. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.41 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DOUG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.83, 5 of 8 active models suggest DOUG may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $3.14, 71.4% above the current price of $1.83 — a consensus view that DOUG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Douglas Elliman Inc.'s business model in Real Estate Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for DOUG?

Douglas Elliman Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DOUG?

CirclFi analyzes DOUG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DOUG?

Of the 8 models currently active on DOUG, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $6.69 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.41. CirclFi's published fair value for DOUG is the median of that range, $3.14, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 200% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DOUG a value trap in 2026?

Douglas Elliman Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Douglas Elliman Inc. (DOUG) has a median fair value of $3.14 — 71.4% above the current price of $1.83 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DOUG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DOUG valuation
  • Financial statements: Douglas Elliman Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001878897) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DOUG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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