Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) Fair Value 2026

AEBI · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) trades at $11.89, approximately 12% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $10.65. QOC: 7.6/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AEBI
Price
$11.89
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.89)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$10.65 -10.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$3.35 -71.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$7.42 -37.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$9.30 -21.8%

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What Is Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's intrinsic value is estimated at $8.13, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $11.89. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-31.6% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $16.36 (+37.6%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $0.46 (-96.1%). This +133.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AEBI?

13 of 13 models are currently active for AEBI. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AEBI's intrinsic value at $10.65, implying -10.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AEBI Rank in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery?

Among 3 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, AEBI ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

As a industrial sector, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG operates in a sector where organic revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AEBI should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AEBI a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for AEBI. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Aebi Schmidt Holding AG. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +133.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AEBI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AEBI's 13 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ALG · AGCO

Frequently Asked Questions About Aebi Schmidt Holding AG

What is Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $10.65. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AEBI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.89, 3 of 13 active models suggest AEBI may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's business model in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for AEBI?

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AEBI?

CirclFi analyzes AEBI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AEBI a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for AEBI at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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