Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) Fair Value 2026

AEBI · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) trades at $12.35, versus a $13.38 median fair value across its 10 active models — 8.4% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AEBI
Price
$12.35
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +220.3% upside with 47% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $13.38, within 8.4% of the current price of $12.35. Estimates range from $1.50 to $40.04. AEBI scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AEBI’s +8.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery sector median is -8.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AEBI?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.61 +2.1%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $39.55 +220.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.50 -87.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.55 -79.3%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including EROIC Spread, PWERM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is AEBI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.50 to $40.04

CirclFi's 10 active models place Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) between $1.50 and $40.04 per share, a spread of 288% of the median. The median of that range — $13.38 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AEBI, against a current price of $12.35.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$1.50median $13.38$40.04
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$1.50
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$40.04
Model agreement5 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AEBI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AEBI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $13.38, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $12.35. While the median implied return is +8.4%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +312.0% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $40.04 (+224.2%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $1.50 (-87.8%). This +312.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AEBI?

10 of 13 models are currently active for AEBI. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AEBI is $13.38 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AEBI Rank in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery?

Among 28 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, AEBI ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

As a industrial sector, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG operates in a sector where organic revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AEBI should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AEBI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AEBI a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Aebi Schmidt Holding AG. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's fundamental quality profile registers 7.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +312.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AEBI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AEBI's 10 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

CNHCNH Industrial N.V.QOC 7.6ARTWArt's-Way Manufacturing Co., Inc.QOC 7.2ASTEAstec Industries, Inc.QOC 7.7TWITitan International, Inc.QOC 7.1MTWThe Manitowoc Company, Inc.QOC 7.7XOSXos, Inc.QOC 6.5CLEVConcrete Leveling Systems, Inc.QOC 5.0CATCaterpillar Inc.QOC 9.0DEDeere & CompanyQOC 8.5BLBDBlue Bird CorporationQOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: CNH · ARTW · ASTE · TWI · MTW · XOS · CLEV · CAT · DE · BLBD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AEBI?

7 companies across all industries closest to AEBI’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

DOUGDouglas Elliman Inc.QOC 7.2DECDiversified Energy CompanyQOC 7.2SKKYSkkynet Cloud Systems, Inc.QOC 7.2GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.QOC 7.2MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.QOC 7.3MTXMinerals Technologies Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DOUG · DEC · SKKY · GHG · MRCY · MTX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Aebi Schmidt Holding AG’s Valuation?

What is Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI)'s intrinsic value at $13.38 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.50 to $40.04. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AEBI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.35, 6 of 10 active models suggest AEBI may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $13.38, within 8.4% of the current price of $12.35 — a consensus view that AEBI is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's business model in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for AEBI?

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AEBI?

CirclFi analyzes AEBI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AEBI?

Of the 10 models currently active on AEBI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $40.04 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $1.50. CirclFi's published fair value for AEBI is the median of that range, $13.38, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 288% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AEBI a value trap in 2026?

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) has a median fair value of $13.38 — within 8.4% of the current price of $12.35 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AEBI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AEBI valuation
  • Financial statements: Aebi Schmidt Holding AG 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002048519) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AEBI as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on AEBI.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

6 models hidden for AEBI Unlock All 10 — $39/mo