AGCO Corporation (AGCO) Fair Value 2026

AGCO · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, AGCO Corporation (AGCO) trades at $110.90, versus a $101.80 median fair value across its 12 active models — 8.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $101.38.

Key Facts

Ticker
AGCO
Price
$110.90
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +192.9% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is AGCO Corporation (AGCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, AGCO Corporation (AGCO) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $101.80, within 8.2% of the current price of $110.90. Estimates range from $31.98 to $324.80. AGCO scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AGCO’s -8.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery sector median is -8.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AGCO Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AGCO?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($110.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $101.38 -8.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $69.71 -37.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $102.23 -7.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $324.80 +192.9%
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What Is AGCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $31.98 to $324.80

CirclFi's 12 active models place AGCO Corporation (AGCO) between $31.98 and $324.80 per share, a spread of 288% of the median. The median of that range — $101.80 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AGCO, against a current price of $110.90.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$31.98median $101.80$324.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$31.98
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$324.80
Model agreement4 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AGCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AGCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AGCO Corporation (AGCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AGCO Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $101.80. Trading at $110.90, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -8.2%), as 7 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $324.80 (+192.9%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $31.98 (-71.2%). This +264.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about AGCO Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AGCO?

12 of 13 models are currently active for AGCO. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AGCO is $101.80 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $101.38 on its own, implying -8.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AGCO Rank in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery?

Among 28 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, AGCO ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places AGCO in the top tier.

The Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial businesses. For AGCO Corporation, metrics like working capital efficiency provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AGCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AGCO a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for AGCO Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AGCO Corporation scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +264.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AGCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AGCO's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AGCO Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

TEXTerex CorporationQOC 8.4WNCWabash National CorporationQOC 8.1DEDeere & CompanyQOC 8.5MTWThe Manitowoc Company, Inc.QOC 7.7PCARPACCAR IncQOC 8.5ASTEAstec Industries, Inc.QOC 7.7TWITitan International, Inc.QOC 7.1NMHINature's Miracle Holding Inc.QOC 3.5OSKOshkosh CorporationQOC 8.8BLBDBlue Bird CorporationQOC 9.4CATCaterpillar Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: TEX · WNC · DE · MTW · PCAR · ASTE · TWI · NMHI · OSK · BLBD · CAT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AGCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to AGCO’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

WAFDWaFd, Inc.QOC 8.3ADEAAdeia Inc.QOC 8.3SOBOSouth Bow CorporationQOC 8.3DCOMDime Commercial Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.3EEFTEuronet Worldwide, Inc.QOC 8.3FSBCFive Star BancorpQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WAFD · ADEA · SOBO · DCOM · EEFT · FSBC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About AGCO Corporation’s Valuation?

What is AGCO Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AGCO Corporation (AGCO)'s intrinsic value at $101.80 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $31.98 to $324.80. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $101.38 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AGCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $110.90, 5 of 12 active models suggest AGCO may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $101.80, within 8.2% of the current price of $110.90 — a consensus view that AGCO is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AGCO Corporation's business model in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for AGCO?

AGCO Corporation's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AGCO?

CirclFi analyzes AGCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AGCO?

Of the 12 models currently active on AGCO, First Chicago is the most bullish at $324.80 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $31.98. CirclFi's published fair value for AGCO is the median of that range, $101.80, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 288% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AGCO a value trap in 2026?

AGCO Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, AGCO Corporation (AGCO) has a median fair value of $101.80 — within 8.2% of the current price of $110.90 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AGCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AGCO valuation
  • Financial statements: AGCO Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000880266) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AGCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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