PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Fair Value 2026

PCAR · Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) trades at $124.26, approximately 5% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $118.76. QOC: 9.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PCAR
Price
$124.26
Quality Score
9.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +28.8% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($124.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $118.76 -4.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $55.33 -55.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $103.90 -16.4%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $160.06 +28.8%

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What Is PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, PACCAR Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $125.79. Trading at $124.26, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of +1.2%), as 8 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $417.48 (+236.0%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $39.87 (-67.9%). This +303.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about PACCAR Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PCAR?

13 of 13 models are currently active for PCAR. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates PCAR's intrinsic value at $118.76, implying -4.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PCAR Rank in Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies?

Among 28 Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies stocks, PCAR ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places PCAR in the top tier.

PACCAR Inc.'s positioning within the Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies segment means that units delivered plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including autonomous driving technology — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PCAR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PCAR a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for PACCAR Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, PACCAR Inc. earns a quality score of 9.4/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +303.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PCAR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PCAR's 13 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy PACCAR Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies stocks with 13-model coverage

RACEFerrari N.V.QOC 10.0FSSFederal Signal CorporationQOC 9.6FFord Motor CompanyQOC 9.6LILi Auto Inc.QOC 9.5TSLATesla, Inc.QOC 8.7FLYEFly-E Group, Inc.QOC 8.4OSKOshkosh Corporation (Holding CoQOC 8.0XPEVXPeng Inc.QOC 7.6

Read investment analysis: RACE · FSS · F · LI · TSLA

Frequently Asked Questions About PACCAR Inc.

What is PACCAR Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $118.76. The Quality of Company score is 9.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PCAR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $124.26, 3 of 13 active models suggest PCAR may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits PACCAR Inc.'s business model in Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.4 mean for PCAR?

PACCAR Inc.'s QOC of 9.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PCAR?

CirclFi analyzes PCAR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PCAR a value trap in 2026?

PACCAR Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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