PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Fair Value 2026

PCAR · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, PACCAR Inc (PCAR) trades at $126.54, versus a $92.70 median fair value across its 11 active models — 26.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $148.37.

Key Facts

Ticker
PCAR
Price
$126.54
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +21.6% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, PACCAR Inc (PCAR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $92.70, 26.7% below the current price of $126.54. Estimates range from $10.47 to $232.12. PCAR scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PCAR’s -26.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery sector median is -8.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy PACCAR Inc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PCAR?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($126.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $148.37 +17.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $60.16 -52.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $92.70 -26.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $153.93 +21.6%
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What Is PCAR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $10.47 to $232.12

CirclFi's 11 active models place PACCAR Inc (PCAR) between $10.47 and $232.12 per share, a spread of 239% of the median. The median of that range — $92.70 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PCAR, against a current price of $126.54.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$10.47median $92.70$232.12
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$10.47
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$232.12
Model agreement4 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PCAR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PCAR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, PACCAR Inc's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $92.70. Trading at $126.54, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -26.7%), as 7 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $232.12 (+83.4%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $10.47 (-91.7%). This +175.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about PACCAR Inc's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PCAR?

11 of 13 models are currently active for PCAR. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PCAR is $92.70 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $148.37 on its own, implying +17.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PCAR Rank in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery?

Among 28 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, PCAR ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places PCAR in the top tier.

PACCAR Inc's positioning within the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery segment means that book-to-bill ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including reshoring and supply chain localization — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PCAR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PCAR a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for PACCAR Inc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, PACCAR Inc earns a quality score of 8.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +175.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PCAR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PCAR's 11 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy PACCAR Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

ALGAlamo Group Inc.QOC 8.6DEDeere & CompanyQOC 8.5GENCGencor Industries, Inc.QOC 8.6TEXTerex CorporationQOC 8.4LNNLindsay CorporationQOC 8.8AGCOAGCO CorporationQOC 8.3CNHCNH Industrial N.V.QOC 7.6CMCOColumbus McKinnon CorporationQOC 5.9BLBDBlue Bird CorporationQOC 9.4CATCaterpillar Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: ALG · DE · GENC · TEX · LNN · AGCO · CNH · CMCO · BLBD · CAT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PCAR?

7 companies across all industries closest to PCAR’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

TTEKTetra Tech, Inc.QOC 8.5LAMRLamar Advertising CompanyQOC 8.5GNTXGentex CorporationQOC 8.5EVEREverQuote, Inc.QOC 8.5MLABMesa Laboratories, Inc.QOC 8.5PWRQuanta Services, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TTEK · LAMR · GNTX · EVER · MLAB · PWR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About PACCAR Inc’s Valuation?

What is PACCAR Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts PACCAR Inc (PCAR)'s intrinsic value at $92.70 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $10.47 to $232.12. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $148.37 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PCAR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $126.54, 4 of 11 active models suggest PCAR may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $92.70, 26.7% below the current price of $126.54 — a consensus view that PCAR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits PACCAR Inc's business model in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for PCAR?

PACCAR Inc's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PCAR?

CirclFi analyzes PCAR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PCAR?

Of the 11 models currently active on PCAR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $232.12 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $10.47. CirclFi's published fair value for PCAR is the median of that range, $92.70, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 239% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PCAR a value trap in 2026?

PACCAR Inc's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, PACCAR Inc (PCAR) has a median fair value of $92.70 — 26.7% below the current price of $126.54 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PCAR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PCAR valuation
  • Financial statements: PACCAR Inc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000075362) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PCAR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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