Ford Motor Company (F) Fair Value 2026

F · Auto Manufacturers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ford Motor Company (F) trades at $13.95, versus a $19.54 median fair value across its 8 active models — 40.1% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $31.67.

Key Facts

Ticker
F
Price
$13.95
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +127.0% upside with 71% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Ford Motor Company (F) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Ford Motor Company (F) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $19.54, 40.1% above the current price of $13.95. Estimates range from $8.52 to $31.67. F scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. F’s +40.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto Manufacturers sector median is +29.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ford Motor Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give F?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.67 +127.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.52 -38.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $20.05 +43.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $19.03 +36.4%
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What Is F's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $8.52 to $31.67

CirclFi's 8 active models place Ford Motor Company (F) between $8.52 and $31.67 per share, a spread of 118% of the median. The median of that range — $19.54 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for F, against a current price of $13.95.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$8.52median $19.54$31.67
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$8.52
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$31.67
Model agreement6 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for F. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on F, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ford Motor Company (F) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ford Motor Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $19.54. At a current market price of $13.95, 6 of 8 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +40.1%. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +127.0% (fair value: $31.67), while EPV is the most conservative at -38.9% ($8.52). The spread between these extremes — +165.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About F?

8 of 13 models are currently active for F. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for F is $19.54 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $31.67 on its own, implying +127.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does F Rank in Auto Manufacturers?

Among 29 Auto Manufacturers stocks, F ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Ford Motor Company's positioning within the Auto Manufacturers segment means that EV mix percentage plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including software-defined vehicle revenue — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is F a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns F a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Ford Motor Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ford Motor Company scores 7.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +165.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every F valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across F's 8 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ford Motor Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Manufacturers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto Manufacturers stocks with 13-model coverage

XPEVXPeng Inc.QOC 7.4NIONIO Inc.QOC 7.0HMCHonda Motor Co., Ltd.QOC 7.5NIUNiu TechnologiesQOC 6.8LILi Auto Inc.QOC 7.8GMGeneral Motors CompanyQOC 6.7LVWRLiveWire Group, Inc.QOC 5.5FFAIFaraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.QOC 4.3LOBOLobo Technologies Ltd.QOC 2.3RACEFerrari N.V.QOC 9.7TSLATesla, Inc.QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: XPEV · NIO · HMC · NIU · LI · GM · LVWR · FFAI · LOBO · RACE · TSLA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to F?

7 companies across all industries closest to F’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

OCOwens CorningQOC 7.2ABRArbor Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2ARVNArvinas, Inc.QOC 7.2SOLVSolventum CorporationQOC 7.2ACRACRES Commercial Realty Corp.QOC 7.2TEAMAtlassian CorporationQOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OC · ABR · ARVN · SOLV · ACR · TEAM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ford Motor Company’s Valuation?

What is Ford Motor Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ford Motor Company (F)'s intrinsic value at $19.54 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $8.52 to $31.67. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $31.67 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is F overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.95, 6 of 8 active models suggest F may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $19.54, 40.1% above the current price of $13.95 — a consensus view that F is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ford Motor Company's business model in Auto Manufacturers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for F?

Ford Motor Company's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on F?

CirclFi analyzes F with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on F?

Of the 8 models currently active on F, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $31.67 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $8.52. CirclFi's published fair value for F is the median of that range, $19.54, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 118% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is F a value trap in 2026?

Ford Motor Company's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Ford Motor Company (F) has a median fair value of $19.54 — 40.1% above the current price of $13.95 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/F/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this F valuation
  • Financial statements: Ford Motor Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000037996) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for F as of ; valuations recomputed .

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