Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Fair Value 2026

TSLA · Auto Manufacturers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) trades at $354.81, versus a $18.85 median fair value across its 8 active models — 94.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $19.91.

Key Facts

Ticker
TSLA
Price
$354.81
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $18.85, 94.7% below the current price of $354.81. Estimates range from $12.39 to $25.43. TSLA scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TSLA’s -94.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto Manufacturers sector median is +29.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tesla, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TSLA?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($354.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.91 -94.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $18.67 -94.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $25.43 -92.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.87 -95.2%
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What Is TSLA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $12.39 to $25.43

CirclFi's 8 active models place Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) between $12.39 and $25.43 per share, a spread of 69% of the median. The median of that range — $18.85 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TSLA, against a current price of $354.81.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · First Chicago
$12.39median $18.85$25.43
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$12.39
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$25.43
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TSLA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tesla, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $18.85. Trading at its current price of $354.81, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -94.7%.

What Do the Models Say About TSLA?

8 of 13 models are currently active for TSLA. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for TSLA is $18.85 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $19.91 on its own, implying -94.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TSLA Rank in Auto Manufacturers?

Among 29 Auto Manufacturers stocks, TSLA ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places TSLA in the top tier.

Tesla, Inc.'s positioning within the Auto Manufacturers segment means that EV mix percentage plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electric vehicle transition — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TSLA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TSLA a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Tesla, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Tesla, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

Models cluster within a tight range (+3.7% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TSLA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TSLA's 8 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tesla, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Manufacturers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Auto Manufacturers stocks with 13-model coverage

RACEFerrari N.V.QOC 9.7TMToyota Motor CorporationQOC 8.1DCXDigital Currency X Technology Inc.QOC 2.2LILi Auto Inc.QOC 7.8LOBOLobo Technologies Ltd.QOC 2.3HMCHonda Motor Co., Ltd.QOC 7.5NIUNiu TechnologiesQOC 6.8RIVNRivian Automotive, Inc.QOC 5.4EMPDEmpery Digital Inc.QOC 3.9

Read investment analysis: RACE · TM · DCX · LI · LOBO · HMC · NIU · RIVN · EMPD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TSLA?

7 companies across all industries closest to TSLA’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

TNKTeekay Tankers Ltd.QOC 8.4HURNHuron Consulting Group Inc.QOC 8.4SCIASCI Engineered Materials, Inc.QOC 8.4SNSharkNinja, Inc.QOC 8.4GENGen Digital Inc.QOC 8.4OVBCOhio Valley Banc Corp.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TNK · HURN · SCIA · SN · GEN · OVBC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tesla, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Tesla, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)'s intrinsic value at $18.85 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.39 to $25.43. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $19.91 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TSLA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $354.81, 0 of 8 active models suggest TSLA may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $18.85, 94.7% below the current price of $354.81 — a consensus view that TSLA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tesla, Inc.'s business model in Auto Manufacturers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for TSLA?

Tesla, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TSLA?

CirclFi analyzes TSLA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TSLA?

Of the 8 models currently active on TSLA, First Chicago is the most bullish at $25.43 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $12.39. CirclFi's published fair value for TSLA is the median of that range, $18.85, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 69% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TSLA a value trap in 2026?

Tesla, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a median fair value of $18.85 — 94.7% below the current price of $354.81 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TSLA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TSLA valuation
  • Financial statements: Tesla, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001318605) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TSLA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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