MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Fair Value 2026

MDB · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) trades at $446.62, versus a $102.12 median fair value across its 5 active models — 77.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $86.56.

Key Facts

Ticker
MDB
Price
$446.62
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $102.12, 77.1% below the current price of $446.62. Estimates range from $52.04 to $198.51. MDB scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MDB’s -77.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -23.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MongoDB, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MDB?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($446.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $86.56 -80.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $102.12 -77.1%
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What Is MDB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $52.04 to $198.51

CirclFi's 5 active models place MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) between $52.04 and $198.51 per share, a spread of 143% of the median. The median of that range — $102.12 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MDB, against a current price of $446.62.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$52.04median $102.12$198.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$52.04
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$198.51
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MDB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MDB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MongoDB, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $102.12, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $446.62. With 5 out of 5 models flagging downside (-77.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -55.6% (fair value: $198.51), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -88.3% ($52.04). The spread between these extremes — +32.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MDB?

5 of 13 models are currently active for MDB. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for MDB is $102.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $86.56 on its own, implying -80.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MDB Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 189 Software - Infrastructure stocks, MDB ranks #55 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

Within the Software - Infrastructure space, MongoDB, Inc. competes in an environment where R&D intensity often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MDB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MDB a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for MongoDB, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, MongoDB, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +32.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MDB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MDB's 5 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MongoDB, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

NETCloudflare, Inc.QOC 7.9PRTHPriority Technology Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9IMXIInternational Money Express, Inc.QOC 7.9EVTCEVERTEC, Inc.QOC 7.7RPDRapid7, Inc.QOC 7.9APPNAppian CorporationQOC 7.7NNNextNav Inc.QOC 5.8OBAIOur Bond, Inc.QOC 4.7PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.QOC 9.2FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: NET · PRTH · IMXI · EVTC · RPD · APPN · NN · OBAI · PLTR · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MDB?

6 companies across all industries closest to MDB’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

TPCTutor Perini CorporationQOC 7.9UVVUniversal CorporationQOC 7.9OPRTOportun Financial CorporationQOC 7.9AROCArchrock, Inc.QOC 7.9AEOAmerican Eagle Outfitters, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TPC · UVV · OPRT · AROC · AEO · NVDA

Where Does MDB Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

MDB is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About MongoDB, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is MongoDB, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts MongoDB, Inc. (MDB)'s intrinsic value at $102.12 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $52.04 to $198.51. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $86.56 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MDB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $446.62, 0 of 5 active models suggest MDB may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $102.12, 77.1% below the current price of $446.62 — a consensus view that MDB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MongoDB, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for MDB?

MongoDB, Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MDB?

CirclFi analyzes MDB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MDB?

Of the 5 models currently active on MDB, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $198.51 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $52.04. CirclFi's published fair value for MDB is the median of that range, $102.12, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 143% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MDB a value trap in 2026?

MongoDB, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) has a median fair value of $102.12 — 77.1% below the current price of $446.62 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MDB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MDB valuation
  • Financial statements: MongoDB, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001441816) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MDB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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