Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) Fair Value 2026

TPC · Engineering & Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) trades at $88.84, versus a $83.89 median fair value across its 11 active models — 5.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $130.28.

Key Facts

Ticker
TPC
Price
$88.84
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +48.4% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $83.89, within 5.6% of the current price of $88.84. Estimates range from $7.30 to $149.42. TPC scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TPC’s -5.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Engineering & Construction sector median is -32.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tutor Perini Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TPC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($88.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $130.28 +46.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.19 -86.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $69.95 -21.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $131.84 +48.4%
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What Is TPC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $7.30 to $149.42

CirclFi's 11 active models place Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) between $7.30 and $149.42 per share, a spread of 169% of the median. The median of that range — $83.89 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TPC, against a current price of $88.84.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$7.30median $83.89$149.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$7.30
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$149.42
Model agreement4 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TPC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TPC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tutor Perini Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $83.89, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $88.84. While the median implied return is -5.6%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +160.0% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $149.42 (+68.2%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $7.30 (-91.8%). This +160.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Tutor Perini Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TPC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for TPC. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TPC is $83.89 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $130.28 on its own, implying +46.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TPC Rank in Engineering & Construction?

Among 53 Engineering & Construction stocks, TPC ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Engineering & Construction Stocks →

Within the Engineering & Construction space, Tutor Perini Corporation competes in an environment where aftermarket revenue mix often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TPC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TPC a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Tutor Perini Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Tutor Perini Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +160.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TPC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TPC's 11 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tutor Perini Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Engineering & Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Engineering & Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

ACMAECOMQOC 7.9ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc.QOC 7.7MTZMasTec, Inc.QOC 8.0FERFerrovial N.V.QOC 7.6KBRKBR, Inc.QOC 8.0JJacobs Solutions Inc.QOC 7.6LGNLegence Corp.QOC 6.3PHOEPhoenix Asia Holdings LimitedQOC 2.9PRIMPrimoris Services CorporationQOC 8.7FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc.QOC 9.6STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: ACM · ECG · MTZ · FER · KBR · J · LGN · PHOE · PRIM · FIX · STRL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TPC?

7 companies across all industries closest to TPC’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

OPRTOportun Financial CorporationQOC 7.9MDBMongoDB, Inc.QOC 7.9AROCArchrock, Inc.QOC 7.9UVVUniversal CorporationQOC 7.9LEATLeatt CorporationQOC 7.9PRTHPriority Technology Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OPRT · MDB · AROC · UVV · LEAT · PRTH · NVDA

Where Does TPC Sit in CirclFi's Engineering & Construction Rankings?

TPC is ranked against every other Engineering & Construction stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Engineering & Construction stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tutor Perini Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Tutor Perini Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC)'s intrinsic value at $83.89 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $7.30 to $149.42. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $130.28 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TPC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $88.84, 5 of 11 active models suggest TPC may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $83.89, within 5.6% of the current price of $88.84 — a consensus view that TPC is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tutor Perini Corporation's business model in Engineering & Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for TPC?

Tutor Perini Corporation's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TPC?

CirclFi analyzes TPC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TPC?

Of the 11 models currently active on TPC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $149.42 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $7.30. CirclFi's published fair value for TPC is the median of that range, $83.89, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 169% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TPC a value trap in 2026?

Tutor Perini Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) has a median fair value of $83.89 — within 5.6% of the current price of $88.84 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TPC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TPC valuation
  • Financial statements: Tutor Perini Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000077543) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TPC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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