AECOM (ACM) Fair Value 2026

ACM · Engineering & Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, AECOM (ACM) trades at $66.24, versus a $75.51 median fair value across its 12 active models — 14.0% above the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $67.18.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACM
Price
$66.24
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +431.1% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is AECOM (ACM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, AECOM (ACM) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $75.51, 14.0% above the current price of $66.24. Estimates range from $25.26 to $351.78. ACM scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ACM’s +14.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Engineering & Construction sector median is -33.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AECOM Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ACM?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($66.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $67.18 +1.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $33.21 -49.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $79.41 +19.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $351.78 +431.1%
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What Is ACM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $25.26 to $351.78

CirclFi's 12 active models place AECOM (ACM) between $25.26 and $351.78 per share, a spread of 432% of the median. The median of that range — $75.51 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ACM, against a current price of $66.24.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$25.26median $75.51$351.78
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$25.26
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$351.78
Model agreement7 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ACM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ACM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AECOM (ACM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AECOM's intrinsic value is estimated at $75.51, suggesting a +14.0% median upside from the current price of $66.24. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $351.78 (+431.1%), versus ML-RIV at $25.26 (-61.9%). This +492.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ACM?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ACM. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ACM is $75.51 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $67.18 on its own, implying +1.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACM Rank in Engineering & Construction?

Among 53 Engineering & Construction stocks, ACM ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Engineering & Construction Stocks →

Within the Engineering & Construction space, AECOM competes in an environment where organic revenue growth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ACM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACM a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for AECOM. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, AECOM's fundamental quality profile registers 7.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +492.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACM's 12 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AECOM Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Engineering & Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Engineering & Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

MTZMasTec, Inc.QOC 8.0TPCTutor Perini CorporationQOC 7.9KBRKBR, Inc.QOC 8.0ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc.QOC 7.7ROADConstruction Partners, Inc.QOC 8.2FERFerrovial N.V.QOC 7.6MGNMegan Holdings LimitedQOC 6.4MMEXMMEX Resources CorporationQOC 3.0DYDycom Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc.QOC 9.6STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: MTZ · TPC · KBR · ECG · ROAD · FER · MGN · MMEX · DY · FIX · STRL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ACM?

7 companies across all industries closest to ACM’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

SCIService Corporation InternationalQOC 7.9EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.QOC 7.9RPDRapid7, Inc.QOC 7.9ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.QOC 7.9HEREHere Group LimitedQOC 7.9NEENextEra Energy, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SCI · EBC · RPD · ESS · HERE · NEE · NVDA

Where Does ACM Sit in CirclFi's Engineering & Construction Rankings?

ACM is ranked against every other Engineering & Construction stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Engineering & Construction stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About AECOM’s Valuation?

What is AECOM's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AECOM (ACM)'s intrinsic value at $75.51 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $25.26 to $351.78. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $67.18 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $66.24, 8 of 12 active models suggest ACM may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $75.51, 14.0% above the current price of $66.24 — a consensus view that ACM is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AECOM's business model in Engineering & Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for ACM?

AECOM's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACM?

CirclFi analyzes ACM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ACM?

Of the 12 models currently active on ACM, First Chicago is the most bullish at $351.78 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $25.26. CirclFi's published fair value for ACM is the median of that range, $75.51, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 432% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ACM a value trap in 2026?

AECOM's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, AECOM (ACM) has a median fair value of $75.51 — 14.0% above the current price of $66.24 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ACM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ACM valuation
  • Financial statements: AECOM 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000868857) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ACM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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