What Is Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arcosa, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $77.10, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $144.94. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-46.8% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $159.77 (+10.2%), versus Markov DDM at $4.60 (-96.8%). This +107.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About ACA?
13 of 13 models are currently active for ACA. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ACA's intrinsic value at $17.18, implying -88.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ACA Rank in Engineering & Construction?
Among 5 Engineering & Construction stocks, ACA ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places ACA in the top tier.
Within the Engineering & Construction space, Arcosa, Inc. competes in an environment where order backlog depth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is ACA a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACA a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Arcosa, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Arcosa, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.3/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +107.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ACA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ACA's 13 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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