Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) Fair Value 2026

ACA · Engineering & Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) trades at $145.49, versus a $46.76 median fair value across its 12 active models — 67.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $10.87.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACA
Price
$145.49
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +148.0% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $46.76, 67.9% below the current price of $145.49. Estimates range from $1.77 to $360.83. ACA scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ACA’s -67.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Engineering & Construction sector median is -33.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Arcosa, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ACA?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($145.49)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.87 -92.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $25.99 -82.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $61.96 -57.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $360.83 +148.0%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ACA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $1.77 to $360.83

CirclFi's 12 active models place Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) between $1.77 and $360.83 per share, a spread of 768% of the median. The median of that range — $46.76 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ACA, against a current price of $145.49.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$1.77median $46.76$360.83
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$1.77
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$360.83
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ACA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ACA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Arcosa, Inc. at its current price of $145.49. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $46.76 (-67.9% vs price), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $360.83 (+148.0%), versus Markov DDM at $1.77 (-98.8%). This +246.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ACA?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ACA. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ACA is $46.76 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $10.87 on its own, implying -92.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACA Rank in Engineering & Construction?

Among 53 Engineering & Construction stocks, ACA ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places ACA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Engineering & Construction Stocks →

Within the Engineering & Construction space, Arcosa, Inc. competes in an environment where order backlog depth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ACA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACA a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Arcosa, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Arcosa, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.4/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +246.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACA's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Arcosa, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Engineering & Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Engineering & Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

GVAGranite Construction IncorporatedQOC 8.5BWMNBowman Consulting Group Ltd.QOC 8.2STNStantec Inc.QOC 8.5ROADConstruction Partners, Inc.QOC 8.2WLDNWilldan Group, Inc.QOC 8.5KBRKBR, Inc.QOC 8.0CDLRCadeler A/SQOC 7.0RITRReitar Logtech Holdings LimitedQOC 5.3STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 9.5FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc.QOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: GVA · BWMN · STN · ROAD · WLDN · KBR · CDLR · RITR · STRL · FIX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ACA?

7 companies across all industries closest to ACA’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

GAPThe Gap, Inc.QOC 8.4VLOValero Energy CorporationQOC 8.4UFCSUnited Fire Group, Inc.QOC 8.4WTMWhite Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.QOC 8.4OPCHOption Care Health, Inc.QOC 8.4NCSMNCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GAP · VLO · UFCS · WTM · OPCH · NCSM · NVDA

Where Does ACA Sit in CirclFi's Engineering & Construction Rankings?

ACA is ranked against every other Engineering & Construction stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Engineering & Construction stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Arcosa, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Arcosa, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Arcosa, Inc. (ACA)'s intrinsic value at $46.76 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.77 to $360.83. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $10.87 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $145.49, 3 of 12 active models suggest ACA may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $46.76, 67.9% below the current price of $145.49 — a consensus view that ACA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Arcosa, Inc.'s business model in Engineering & Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for ACA?

Arcosa, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACA?

CirclFi analyzes ACA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ACA?

Of the 12 models currently active on ACA, First Chicago is the most bullish at $360.83 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $1.77. CirclFi's published fair value for ACA is the median of that range, $46.76, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 768% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ACA a value trap in 2026?

Arcosa, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) has a median fair value of $46.76 — 67.9% below the current price of $145.49 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ACA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ACA valuation
  • Financial statements: Arcosa, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001739445) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ACA as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ACA.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

8 models hidden for ACA Unlock All 12 — $39/mo