Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC) Fair Value 2026

AMRC · Engineering & Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC) trades at $23.83. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMRC
Price
$23.83
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +138.5% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.83)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$23.15 -2.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$56.83 +138.5%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
$2.34 -90.2%
ML-RIV
High Conviction
$10.76 -54.8%

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What Is Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Ameresco, Inc. at its current price of $23.83. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $20.59 (-13.6% average return), with 6 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $56.83 (+138.5%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $2.34 (-90.2%). This +228.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ameresco, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AMRC?

10 of 13 models are currently active for AMRC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMRC Rank in Engineering & Construction?

Among 5 Engineering & Construction stocks, AMRC ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places AMRC in the top tier.

Within the Engineering & Construction space, Ameresco, Inc. competes in an environment where order backlog depth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AMRC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMRC a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Ameresco, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Ameresco, Inc. is rated at 8.1/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +228.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMRC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMRC's 10 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ameresco, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Engineering & Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

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Frequently Asked Questions About Ameresco, Inc.

What is Ameresco, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMRC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.83, 3 of 10 active models suggest AMRC may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ameresco, Inc.'s business model in Engineering & Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for AMRC?

Ameresco, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMRC?

CirclFi analyzes AMRC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AMRC a value trap in 2026?

Ameresco, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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