Cadeler A/S (CDLR) Fair Value 2026

CDLR · Engineering & Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (50/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Cadeler A/S (CDLR) trades at $25.05, versus a $43.82 median fair value across its 9 active models — 74.9% above the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 50/100 (WARN). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $76.03.

Key Facts

Ticker
CDLR
Price
$25.05
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
50/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +203.5% upside with 50% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 50 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Cadeler A/S (CDLR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Cadeler A/S (CDLR) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $43.82, 74.9% above the current price of $25.05. Estimates range from $4.46 to $95.52. CDLR scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 50/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CDLR’s +74.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Engineering & Construction sector median is -32.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cadeler A/S Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CDLR?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.05)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $76.03 +203.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $43.82 +74.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $26.61 +6.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.90 +15.4%
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What Is CDLR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $4.46 to $95.52

CirclFi's 9 active models place Cadeler A/S (CDLR) between $4.46 and $95.52 per share, a spread of 208% of the median. The median of that range — $43.82 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CDLR, against a current price of $25.05.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$4.46median $43.82$95.52
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$4.46
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$95.52
Model agreement7 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CDLR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CDLR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cadeler A/S (CDLR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cadeler A/S is potentially undervalued at its current price of $25.05. Based on our 13-model framework, Cadeler A/S's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $43.82 — representing +74.9% implied upside — with 7 out of 9 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $95.52 (+281.3%), versus Dynamic NAV at $4.46 (-82.2%). This +363.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CDLR?

9 of 13 models are currently active for CDLR. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CDLR is $43.82 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $76.03 on its own, implying +203.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CDLR Rank in Engineering & Construction?

Among 53 Engineering & Construction stocks, CDLR ranks #29 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Engineering & Construction Stocks →

As a industrial enterprise, Cadeler A/S operates in a sector where organic revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating CDLR should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is CDLR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CDLR a score of 50/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Cadeler A/S. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Cadeler A/S's fundamental quality profile registers 7.0/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +363.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CDLR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CDLR's 9 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cadeler A/S Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Engineering & Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Engineering & Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

BBCPConcrete Pumping Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.4ORNOrion Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9CDNLCardinal Infrastructure Group Inc.QOC 7.4ESOAEnergy Services of America CorporationQOC 6.8AMRCAmeresco, Inc.QOC 7.5MTRXMatrix Service CompanyQOC 6.6RITRReitar Logtech Holdings LimitedQOC 5.3STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 9.5GVAGranite Construction IncorporatedQOC 8.5FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc.QOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: BBCP · ORN · CDNL · ESOA · AMRC · MTRX · RITR · STRL · GVA · FIX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CDLR?

7 companies across all industries closest to CDLR’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

AMBAAmbarella, Inc.QOC 7.0WFWoori Financial Group Inc.QOC 7.0BRIABrilliA IncQOC 7.0SEERSeer, Inc.QOC 7.0TAKTakeda Pharmaceutical Company LimitedQOC 7.0KODKEastman Kodak CompanyQOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AMBA · WF · BRIA · SEER · TAK · KODK · NVDA

Where Does CDLR Sit in CirclFi's Engineering & Construction Rankings?

CDLR is ranked against every other Engineering & Construction stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Engineering & Construction stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cadeler A/S’s Valuation?

What is Cadeler A/S's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cadeler A/S (CDLR)'s intrinsic value at $43.82 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.46 to $95.52. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $76.03 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CDLR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.05, 7 of 9 active models suggest CDLR may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $43.82, 74.9% above the current price of $25.05 — a consensus view that CDLR is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cadeler A/S's business model in Engineering & Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for CDLR?

Cadeler A/S's QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CDLR?

CirclFi analyzes CDLR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CDLR?

Of the 9 models currently active on CDLR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $95.52 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $4.46. CirclFi's published fair value for CDLR is the median of that range, $43.82, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 208% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CDLR a value trap in 2026?

Cadeler A/S's Value Trap score is 50/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Cadeler A/S (CDLR) has a median fair value of $43.82 — 74.9% above the current price of $25.05 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CDLR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CDLR valuation
  • Financial statements: Cadeler A/S 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001978867) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CDLR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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