What Is Matrix Service Company (MTRX) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Matrix Service Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $21.66. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $12.29 (implied upside of +76.2%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 13 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +368.8% (fair value: $57.61), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -90.8% ($1.13). The spread between these extremes — +459.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About MTRX?
13 of 13 models are currently active for MTRX. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MTRX's intrinsic value at $29.32, implying +138.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does MTRX Rank in Construction - Special Trade Contractors?
Among 14 Construction - Special Trade Contractors stocks, MTRX ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.
Within the Construction - Special Trade Contractors space, Matrix Service Company competes in an environment where aftermarket revenue mix often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is MTRX a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MTRX a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Matrix Service Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Matrix Service Company is rated at 6.6/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +459.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every MTRX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across MTRX's 13 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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