Matrix Service Company (MTRX) Fair Value 2026

MTRX · Engineering & Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Matrix Service Company (MTRX) trades at $10.91, versus a $45.07 median fair value across its 5 active models — 313.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $55.42.

Key Facts

Ticker
MTRX
Price
$10.91
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +408.0% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Matrix Service Company (MTRX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Matrix Service Company (MTRX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $45.07, 313.1% above the current price of $10.91. Estimates range from $28.15 to $57.12. MTRX scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MTRX’s +313.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Engineering & Construction sector median is -33.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Matrix Service Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MTRX?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.91)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $55.42 +408.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $45.07 +313.1%
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What Is MTRX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $28.15 to $57.12

CirclFi's 5 active models place Matrix Service Company (MTRX) between $28.15 and $57.12 per share, a spread of 64% of the median. The median of that range — $45.07 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MTRX, against a current price of $10.91.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · FTNN
$28.15median $45.07$57.12
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$28.15
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$57.12
Model agreement5 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MTRX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Matrix Service Company (MTRX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Matrix Service Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $45.07. At a current market price of $10.91, 5 of 5 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +313.1%. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +423.5% (fair value: $57.12), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at +158.0% ($28.15). The spread between these extremes — +265.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About MTRX?

5 of 13 models are currently active for MTRX. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for MTRX is $45.07 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $55.42 on its own, implying +408.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MTRX Rank in Engineering & Construction?

Among 53 Engineering & Construction stocks, MTRX ranks #32 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Engineering & Construction Stocks →

Within the Engineering & Construction space, Matrix Service Company competes in an environment where aftermarket revenue mix often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MTRX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MTRX a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Matrix Service Company. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Matrix Service Company is rated at 6.6/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +265.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MTRX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MTRX's 5 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Matrix Service Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Engineering & Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Engineering & Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

ESOAEnergy Services of America CorporationQOC 6.8FLRFluor CorporationQOC 6.5ORNOrion Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9MGNMegan Holdings LimitedQOC 6.4CDLRCadeler A/SQOC 7.0LGNLegence Corp.QOC 6.3OFALOFA GroupQOC 5.0AGXArgan, Inc.QOC 9.0ROADConstruction Partners, Inc.QOC 8.2FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc.QOC 9.6STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: ESOA · FLR · ORN · MGN · CDLR · LGN · OFAL · AGX · ROAD · FIX · STRL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MTRX?

7 companies across all industries closest to MTRX’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

OPENOpendoor Technologies Inc.QOC 6.6LINKInterlink Electronics, Inc.QOC 6.6AMBOAmbow Education Holding Ltd. AmQOC 6.6SMFGSumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.QOC 6.6REREATRenew Inc.QOC 6.6LNDBrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades AgrícolasQOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OPEN · LINK · AMBO · SMFG · RERE · LND · NVDA

Where Does MTRX Sit in CirclFi's Engineering & Construction Rankings?

MTRX is ranked against every other Engineering & Construction stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Engineering & Construction stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Matrix Service Company’s Valuation?

What is Matrix Service Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Matrix Service Company (MTRX)'s intrinsic value at $45.07 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $28.15 to $57.12. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $55.42 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MTRX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.91, 5 of 5 active models suggest MTRX may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $45.07, 313.1% above the current price of $10.91 — a consensus view that MTRX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Matrix Service Company's business model in Engineering & Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for MTRX?

Matrix Service Company's QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MTRX?

CirclFi analyzes MTRX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MTRX?

Of the 5 models currently active on MTRX, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $57.12 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $28.15. CirclFi's published fair value for MTRX is the median of that range, $45.07, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 64% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MTRX a value trap in 2026?

Matrix Service Company's Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Matrix Service Company (MTRX) has a median fair value of $45.07 — 313.1% above the current price of $10.91 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MTRX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MTRX valuation
  • Financial statements: Matrix Service Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000866273) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MTRX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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