Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) Fair Value 2026

AMTM · Specialty Business Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) trades at $20.31, versus a $23.37 median fair value across its 9 active models — 15.1% above the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMTM
Price
$20.31
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +108.1% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $23.37, 15.1% above the current price of $20.31. Estimates range from $5.88 to $60.50. AMTM scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AMTM’s +15.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Specialty Business Services sector median is +1.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Amentum Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AMTM?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $23.37 +15.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $42.25 +108.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.88 -71.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $7.94 -60.9%
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What Is AMTM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $5.88 to $60.50

CirclFi's 9 active models place Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) between $5.88 and $60.50 per share, a spread of 234% of the median. The median of that range — $23.37 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AMTM, against a current price of $20.31.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$5.88median $23.37$60.50
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$5.88
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$60.50
Model agreement5 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AMTM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AMTM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Amentum Holdings, Inc. at $20.31. With an estimated intrinsic value of $23.37 and 5 of 9 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +15.1%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $60.50 (+197.9%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $5.88 (-71.0%). This +268.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AMTM?

9 of 13 models are currently active for AMTM. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AMTM is $23.37 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMTM Rank in Specialty Business Services?

Among 55 Specialty Business Services stocks, AMTM ranks #23 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Business Services Stocks →

Amentum Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AMTM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMTM a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Amentum Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Amentum Holdings, Inc. is rated at 7.1/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +268.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMTM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMTM's 9 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Amentum Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Business Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Business Services stocks with 13-model coverage

KUBRKuber Resources CorporationQOC 7.2RTORentokil Initial plcQOC 7.1RHLDResolute Holdings Management, Inc.QOC 7.3KODKEastman Kodak CompanyQOC 7.0QUADQuad/Graphics, Inc.QOC 7.3FAFirst Advantage CorporationQOC 6.9SGRPSPAR Group, Inc.QOC 5.7ANPARich Sparkle Holdings LimitedQOC 2.9CASSCass Information Systems, Inc.QOC 8.1CTASCintas CorporationQOC 9.2RELXRELX PLCQOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: KUBR · RTO · RHLD · KODK · QUAD · FA · SGRP · ANPA · CASS · CTAS · RELX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AMTM?

7 companies across all industries closest to AMTM’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

PHGKoninklijke Philips N.V.QOC 7.1KNFKnife River CorporationQOC 7.1LGLThe LGL Group, Inc.QOC 7.1STSensata Technologies Holding plcQOC 7.1BRLTBrilliant Earth Group, Inc.QOC 7.1FINWFinWise BancorpQOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PHG · KNF · LGL · ST · BRLT · FINW · NVDA

Where Does AMTM Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Business Services Rankings?

AMTM is ranked against every other Specialty Business Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Business Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Amentum Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM)'s intrinsic value at $23.37 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.88 to $60.50. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMTM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.31, 5 of 9 active models suggest AMTM may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $23.37, 15.1% above the current price of $20.31 — a consensus view that AMTM is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Business Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for AMTM?

Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMTM?

CirclFi analyzes AMTM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AMTM?

Of the 9 models currently active on AMTM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $60.50 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $5.88. CirclFi's published fair value for AMTM is the median of that range, $23.37, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 234% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AMTM a value trap in 2026?

Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) has a median fair value of $23.37 — 15.1% above the current price of $20.31 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMTM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AMTM valuation
  • Financial statements: Amentum Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002011286) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AMTM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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