Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) Fair Value 2026

AMTM · Services-Business Services, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) trades at $20.49, approximately 63% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $54.94. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMTM
Price
$20.49
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +201.2% upside with 44% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.49)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$54.94 +168.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$32.24 +57.3%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$61.71 +201.2%
RCMH-DCF
Medium Conviction
$36.18 +76.6%

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What Is Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $25.38, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $20.49. While the average implied return is +23.9%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +297.8% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $61.71 (+201.2%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $0.69 (-96.6%). This +297.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AMTM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for AMTM. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AMTM's intrinsic value at $54.94, implying +168.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMTM Rank in Services-Business Services, NEC?

Among 97 Services-Business Services, NEC stocks, AMTM ranks #36 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places AMTM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Business Services, NEC Stocks →

Amentum Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AMTM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMTM a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Amentum Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Amentum Holdings, Inc. is rated at 8.1/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +297.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMTM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMTM's 11 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Amentum Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Business Services, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Business Services, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CART · EXLS · FICO · PDD · TCOM

See all Services-Business Services, NEC stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Amentum Holdings, Inc.

What is Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $54.94. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMTM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.49, 6 of 11 active models suggest AMTM may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Services-Business Services, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for AMTM?

Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMTM?

CirclFi analyzes AMTM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AMTM a value trap in 2026?

Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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