Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD) Fair Value 2026

QUAD · Specialty Business Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD) trades at $10.07, versus a $13.32 median fair value across its 10 active models — 32.2% above the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.89.

Key Facts

Ticker
QUAD
Price
$10.07
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +27.0% upside with 10% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $13.32, 32.2% above the current price of $10.07. Estimates range from $1.89 to $38.74. QUAD scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. QUAD’s +32.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Business Services sector median is -0.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Quad/Graphics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give QUAD?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.07)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.89 -81.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.79 +27.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.86 -41.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.95 -21.1%
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What Is QUAD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.89 to $38.74

CirclFi's 10 active models place Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD) between $1.89 and $38.74 per share, a spread of 277% of the median. The median of that range — $13.32 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for QUAD, against a current price of $10.07.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$1.89median $13.32$38.74
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$1.89
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$38.74
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for QUAD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on QUAD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Quad/Graphics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.32, suggesting a +32.2% median upside from the current price of $10.07. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $38.74 (+284.7%), versus Bayesian DCF at $1.89 (-81.2%). This +365.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About QUAD?

10 of 13 models are currently active for QUAD. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for QUAD is $13.32 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.89 on its own, implying -81.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does QUAD Rank in Specialty Business Services?

Among 54 Specialty Business Services stocks, QUAD ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Business Services Stocks →

Quad/Graphics, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is QUAD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns QUAD a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Quad/Graphics, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Quad/Graphics, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.3/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +365.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every QUAD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across QUAD's 10 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Quad/Graphics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Business Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Business Services stocks with 13-model coverage

CBZCBIZ, Inc.QOC 7.5RHLDResolute Holdings Management, Inc.QOC 7.3CMPRCimpress plcQOC 7.8KUBRKuber Resources CorporationQOC 7.2LZLegalZoom.com, Inc.QOC 7.8AMTMAmentum Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1NTIPNetwork-1 Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.2THHTryHard Holdings LimitedQOC 3.4DLBDolby Laboratories, Inc.QOC 8.5CTASCintas CorporationQOC 9.2RELXRELX PLCQOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: CBZ · RHLD · CMPR · KUBR · LZ · AMTM · NTIP · THH · DLB · CTAS · RELX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to QUAD?

7 companies across all industries closest to QUAD’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.QOC 7.3FISKEmpire State Realty OP, L.P.QOC 7.3RMRThe RMR Group Inc.QOC 7.3OGCPEmpire State Realty OP, L.P.QOC 7.3HKHCHorizon Kinetics Holding CorporationQOC 7.3VGVenture Global, Inc.QOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HCC · FISK · RMR · OGCP · HKHC · VG · NVDA

Where Does QUAD Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Business Services Rankings?

QUAD is ranked against every other Specialty Business Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Business Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Quad/Graphics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Quad/Graphics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD)'s intrinsic value at $13.32 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.89 to $38.74. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.89 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is QUAD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.07, 6 of 10 active models suggest QUAD may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $13.32, 32.2% above the current price of $10.07 — a consensus view that QUAD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Quad/Graphics, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Business Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for QUAD?

Quad/Graphics, Inc.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on QUAD?

CirclFi analyzes QUAD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on QUAD?

Of the 10 models currently active on QUAD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $38.74 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $1.89. CirclFi's published fair value for QUAD is the median of that range, $13.32, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 277% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is QUAD a value trap in 2026?

Quad/Graphics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD) has a median fair value of $13.32 — 32.2% above the current price of $10.07 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/QUAD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this QUAD valuation
  • Financial statements: Quad/Graphics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001481792) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for QUAD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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