Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) Fair Value 2026

NMR · Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) trades at $9.61. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NMR
Price
$9.61
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +319.2% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.61)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$40.28 +319.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$29.36 +205.5%
RCMH-DCF
High Conviction
$10.70 +11.3%
EROIC Spread
Medium Conviction
$23.49 +144.4%

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What Is Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Nomura Holdings Inc. Trading at $9.61 against an estimated intrinsic value of $22.42, 8 of 8 active models flag meaningful upside of +133.3% on average. The most optimistic model, EPV, places fair value at $40.28 (+319.2%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $10.70 (+11.3%). This +307.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Nomura Holdings Inc's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NMR?

8 of 13 models are currently active for NMR. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NMR Rank in Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies?

Among 33 Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks, NMR ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies Stocks →

Nomura Holdings Inc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NMR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NMR a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Nomura Holdings Inc. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Nomura Holdings Inc's fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +307.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NMR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NMR's 8 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nomura Holdings Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Nomura Holdings Inc

What is Nomura Holdings Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NMR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.61, 8 of 8 active models suggest NMR may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nomura Holdings Inc's business model in Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for NMR?

Nomura Holdings Inc's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NMR?

CirclFi analyzes NMR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NMR a value trap in 2026?

Nomura Holdings Inc's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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