Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) Fair Value 2026

NMR · Capital Markets ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) trades at $10.12, versus a $11.75 median fair value across its 5 active models — 16.1% above the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NMR
Price
$10.12
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +16.1% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $11.75, 16.1% above the current price of $10.12. Estimates range from $9.48 to $15.51. NMR scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NMR’s +16.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Capital Markets sector median is -34.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nomura Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NMR?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.12)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $11.45 +13.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.75 +16.1%
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What Is NMR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $9.48 to $15.51

CirclFi's 5 active models place Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) between $9.48 and $15.51 per share, a spread of 51% of the median. The median of that range — $11.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NMR, against a current price of $10.12.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$9.48median $11.75$15.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$9.48
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$15.51
Model agreement4 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NMR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Nomura Holdings, Inc.. Trading at $10.12 against an estimated intrinsic value of $11.75, 4 of 5 active models flag meaningful upside of +16.1% at the median. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $15.51 (+53.3%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $9.48 (-6.4%). This +59.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Nomura Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NMR?

5 of 13 models are currently active for NMR. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NMR is $11.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NMR Rank in Capital Markets?

Among 103 Capital Markets stocks, NMR ranks #31 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Capital Markets Stocks →

Within the Capital Markets space, Nomura Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where return on tangible equity often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NMR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NMR a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Nomura Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Nomura Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +59.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NMR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NMR's 5 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nomura Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Capital Markets Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Capital Markets stocks with 13-model coverage

HGBLHeritage Global Inc.QOC 7.3MSMorgan StanleyQOC 7.1GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.QOC 7.4JEFJefferies Financial Group Inc.QOC 7.0MRXMarex Group LimitedQOC 7.4MIAXMiami International Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9HUTHut 8 Corp.QOC 5.7STEXStreamex Corp.QOC 4.4PIPRPiper Sandler CompaniesQOC 9.1FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: HGBL · MS · GS · JEF · MRX · MIAX · HUT · STEX · PIPR · FUTU · HOOD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NMR?

6 companies across all industries closest to NMR’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

OGEOGE Energy Corp.QOC 7.1DINDine Brands Global, Inc.QOC 7.1MTHMeritage Homes CorporationQOC 7.1TLFTandy Leather Factory, Inc.QOC 7.1ASTHAstrana Health, Inc.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OGE · DIN · MTH · TLF · ASTH · NVDA

Where Does NMR Sit in CirclFi's Capital Markets Rankings?

NMR is ranked against every other Capital Markets stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Capital Markets stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nomura Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Nomura Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR)'s intrinsic value at $11.75 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $9.48 to $15.51. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NMR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.12, 4 of 5 active models suggest NMR may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $11.75, 16.1% above the current price of $10.12 — a consensus view that NMR is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nomura Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Capital Markets.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for NMR?

Nomura Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NMR?

CirclFi analyzes NMR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NMR?

Of the 5 models currently active on NMR, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $15.51 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $9.48. CirclFi's published fair value for NMR is the median of that range, $11.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 51% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NMR a value trap in 2026?

Nomura Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) has a median fair value of $11.75 — 16.1% above the current price of $10.12 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NMR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NMR valuation
  • Financial statements: Nomura Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001163653) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NMR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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