MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) Fair Value 2026

MKTX · Capital Markets ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) trades at $162.46, versus a $103.40 median fair value across its 6 active models — 36.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MKTX
Price
$162.46
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $103.40, 36.4% below the current price of $162.46. Estimates range from $74.11 to $180.60. MKTX scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MKTX’s -36.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Capital Markets sector median is -34.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MKTX?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($162.46)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $74.11 -54.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $103.51 -36.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $108.21 -33.4%
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What Is MKTX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $74.11 to $180.60

CirclFi's 6 active models place MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) between $74.11 and $180.60 per share, a spread of 103% of the median. The median of that range — $103.40 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MKTX, against a current price of $162.46.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$74.11median $103.40$180.60
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$74.11
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$180.60
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MKTX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MKTX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MarketAxess Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $103.40. Trading at its current price of $162.46, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -36.4%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $180.60 (+11.2%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $74.11 (-54.4%). This +65.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about MarketAxess Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MKTX?

6 of 13 models are currently active for MKTX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MKTX is $103.40 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MKTX Rank in Capital Markets?

Among 103 Capital Markets stocks, MKTX ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places MKTX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Capital Markets Stocks →

The Capital Markets sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For MarketAxess Holdings Inc., metrics like cost-to-income ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MKTX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MKTX a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for MarketAxess Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MarketAxess Holdings Inc. scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +65.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MKTX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MKTX's 6 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Capital Markets Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Capital Markets stocks with 13-model coverage

SIEBSiebert Financial Corp.QOC 8.6PJTPJT Partners Inc.QOC 8.2EVREvercore Inc.QOC 8.6BGCBGC Group, Inc.QOC 8.2HLIHoulihan Lokey, Inc.QOC 8.7GRANGrande Group LimitedQOC 8.0CRCLCircle Internet GroupQOC 6.7BTCSBTCS Inc.QOC 5.5HWKEHawkeye Systems, Inc.QOC 3.7FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: SIEB · PJT · EVR · BGC · HLI · GRAN · CRCL · BTCS · HWKE · FUTU · HOOD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MKTX?

7 companies across all industries closest to MKTX’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

PSXPhillips 66QOC 8.3IIINInsteel Industries Inc.QOC 8.3NVSTEnvista Holdings CorporationQOC 8.3CHAChagee Holdings LimitedQOC 8.3HONHoneywell International Inc.QOC 8.3TSSITSS, Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PSX · IIIN · NVST · CHA · HON · TSSI · NVDA

Where Does MKTX Sit in CirclFi's Capital Markets Rankings?

MKTX is ranked against every other Capital Markets stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Capital Markets stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About MarketAxess Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is MarketAxess Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX)'s intrinsic value at $103.40 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $74.11 to $180.60. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MKTX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $162.46, 1 of 6 active models suggest MKTX may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $103.40, 36.4% below the current price of $162.46 — a consensus view that MKTX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MarketAxess Holdings Inc.'s business model in Capital Markets.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for MKTX?

MarketAxess Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MKTX?

CirclFi analyzes MKTX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MKTX?

Of the 6 models currently active on MKTX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $180.60 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $74.11. CirclFi's published fair value for MKTX is the median of that range, $103.40, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 103% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MKTX a value trap in 2026?

MarketAxess Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) has a median fair value of $103.40 — 36.4% below the current price of $162.46 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MKTX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MKTX valuation
  • Financial statements: MarketAxess Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001278021) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MKTX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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