MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. (MKTX) Fair Value 2026

MKTX · Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. (MKTX) trades at $115.37, approximately 27% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $158.96. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MKTX
Price
$115.37
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +70.6% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($115.37)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$158.96 +37.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$71.39 -38.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$108.19 -6.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$196.79 +70.6%

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What Is MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. (MKTX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MarketAxess Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $111.02, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $115.37. While the average implied return is -3.8%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +165.2% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $196.79 (+70.6%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $6.15 (-94.7%). This +165.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about MarketAxess Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MKTX?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MKTX. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MKTX's intrinsic value at $158.96, implying +37.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MKTX Rank in Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies?

Among 33 Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks, MKTX ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places MKTX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies Stocks →

MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MKTX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MKTX a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for MarketAxess Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. scores 9.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +165.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MKTX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MKTX's 13 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About MarketAxess Holdings, Inc.

What is MarketAxess Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. (MKTX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $158.96. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MKTX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $115.37, 6 of 13 active models suggest MKTX may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MarketAxess Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for MKTX?

MarketAxess Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MKTX?

CirclFi analyzes MKTX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MKTX a value trap in 2026?

MarketAxess Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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