VirTra, Inc. (VTSI) Fair Value 2026

VTSI · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (41/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, VirTra, Inc. (VTSI) trades at $3.07, versus a $2.88 median fair value across its 12 active models — 6.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 41/100 (WARN). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.52.

Key Facts

Ticker
VTSI
Price
$3.07
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
41/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +31.2% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 41 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is VirTra, Inc. (VTSI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, VirTra, Inc. (VTSI) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $2.88, within 6.3% of the current price of $3.07. Estimates range from $0.82 to $5.10. VTSI scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 41/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. VTSI’s -6.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy VirTra, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VTSI?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.07)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.52 -50.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.94 -37.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $2.71 -11.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $4.03 +31.2%
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What Is VTSI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $0.82 to $5.10

CirclFi's 12 active models place VirTra, Inc. (VTSI) between $0.82 and $5.10 per share, a spread of 149% of the median. The median of that range — $2.88 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VTSI, against a current price of $3.07.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$0.82median $2.88$5.10
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.82
Most bullish modelPWERM$5.10
Model agreement5 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VTSI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VTSI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is VirTra, Inc. (VTSI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, VirTra, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $3.07. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $2.88 (-6.3% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 6 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $5.10 (+66.0%), versus ML-RIV at $0.82 (-73.4%). This +139.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About VTSI?

12 of 13 models are currently active for VTSI. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for VTSI is $2.88 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.52 on its own, implying -50.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VTSI Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, VTSI ranks #82 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

VirTra, Inc.'s positioning within the Software - Application segment means that gross margin profile plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including platform stickiness — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is VTSI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VTSI a score of 41/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for VirTra, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, VirTra, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +139.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VTSI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VTSI's 12 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy VirTra, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

MAPSWM Technology, Inc.QOC 7.7CCCCCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6RBBNRibbon Communications Inc.QOC 7.7EVCMEverCommerce Inc.QOC 7.6APIAgora, Inc.QOC 7.8VERXVertex, Inc.QOC 7.5IPMIntelligent Protection Management Corp.QOC 6.2SVMBJingbo Technology, Inc.QOC 4.4YMMFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.QOC 9.2ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: MAPS · CCC · RBBN · EVCM · API · VERX · IPM · SVMB · YMM · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VTSI?

7 companies across all industries closest to VTSI’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.QOC 7.6MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6TXG10x Genomics, Inc.QOC 7.6LXULSB Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6RDNRadian Group Inc.QOC 7.6HUMHumana Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: QSR · MTSI · TXG · LXU · RDN · HUM · NVDA

Where Does VTSI Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

VTSI is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About VirTra, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is VirTra, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts VirTra, Inc. (VTSI)'s intrinsic value at $2.88 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.82 to $5.10. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.52 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VTSI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.07, 5 of 12 active models suggest VTSI may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $2.88, within 6.3% of the current price of $3.07 — a consensus view that VTSI is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits VirTra, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for VTSI?

VirTra, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VTSI?

CirclFi analyzes VTSI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VTSI?

Of the 12 models currently active on VTSI, PWERM is the most bullish at $5.10 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.82. CirclFi's published fair value for VTSI is the median of that range, $2.88, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 149% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VTSI a value trap in 2026?

VirTra, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 41/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, VirTra, Inc. (VTSI) has a median fair value of $2.88 — within 6.3% of the current price of $3.07 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VTSI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VTSI valuation
  • Financial statements: VirTra, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001085243) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VTSI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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