Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) Fair Value 2026

EVLV · Security & Protection Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (39/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) trades at $5.32, versus a $0.89 median fair value across its 3 active models — 83.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 39/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.89.

Key Facts

Ticker
EVLV
Price
$5.32
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
39/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: 3 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $0.89, 83.2% below the current price of $5.32. Estimates range from $0.82 to $1.38. EVLV scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 39/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. EVLV’s -83.2% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EVLV?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.32)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.89 -83.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.82 -84.6%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $1.38 -74.0%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is EVLV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $0.82 to $1.38

CirclFi's 3 active models place Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) between $0.82 and $1.38 per share, a spread of 63% of the median. The median of that range — $0.89 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EVLV, against a current price of $5.32.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · FTNN
$0.82median $0.89$1.38
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$0.82
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$1.38
Model agreement0 bullish · 3 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EVLV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $0.89, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $5.32. With 3 out of 3 models flagging downside (-83.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About EVLV?

3 of 13 models are currently active for EVLV. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for EVLV is $0.89 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.89 on its own, implying -83.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EVLV Rank in Security & Protection Services?

Among 22 Security & Protection Services stocks, EVLV ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is EVLV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EVLV a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.0/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

Models cluster within a tight range (+10.6% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EVLV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EVLV's 3 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Protection Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Security & Protection Services stocks with 13-model coverage

ADTADT Inc.QOC 7.5NLNLI Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9MGMistras Group, Inc.QOC 7.7VRMEVerifyMe, Inc.QOC 6.7GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.QOC 7.7KSCPKnightscope, Inc.QOC 6.3BKYIBIO-key International, Inc.QOC 6.1SPCBSuperCom Ltd.QOC 2.1CIXCompX International Inc.QOC 8.8NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.6ALLEAllegion plcQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: ADT · NL · MG · VRME · GEO · KSCP · BKYI · SPCB · CIX · NSSC · ALLE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EVLV?

7 companies across all industries closest to EVLV’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

RVSBRiverview Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.0PEBPebblebrook Hotel TrustQOC 7.0DHDefinitive Healthcare Corp.QOC 7.0TALKTalkspace IncQOC 7.0AOUTAmerican Outdoor Brands, Inc.QOC 7.0MRNAModerna, Inc.QOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RVSB · PEB · DH · TALK · AOUT · MRNA · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)'s intrinsic value at $0.89 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.82 to $1.38. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.89 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EVLV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.32, 0 of 3 active models suggest EVLV may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $0.89, 83.2% below the current price of $5.32 — a consensus view that EVLV is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Security & Protection Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for EVLV?

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EVLV?

CirclFi analyzes EVLV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EVLV?

Of the 3 models currently active on EVLV, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $1.38 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $0.82. CirclFi's published fair value for EVLV is the median of that range, $0.89, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 63% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EVLV a value trap in 2026?

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 39/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV) has a median fair value of $0.89 — 83.2% below the current price of $5.32 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EVLV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EVLV valuation
  • Financial statements: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001805385) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EVLV as of ; valuations recomputed .