Evolv Technologies Holdings, In (EVLV) Fair Value 2026

EVLV · Computer Peripheral Equipment, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Evolv Technologies Holdings, In (EVLV) trades at $5.98, approximately 481% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.03. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
EVLV
Price
$5.98
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$1.03 -82.8%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$0.62 -89.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.49 -75.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$2.67 -55.3%

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What Is Evolv Technologies Holdings, In (EVLV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Evolv Technologies Holdings, In's intrinsic value is estimated at $1.83, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $5.98. With 12 out of 12 models flagging downside (-69.4% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $5.61 (-6.2%), versus ML-RIV at $0.20 (-96.7%). This +90.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About EVLV?

12 of 13 models are currently active for EVLV. All 12 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates EVLV's intrinsic value at $1.03, implying -82.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EVLV Rank in Computer Peripheral Equipment, NEC?

Among 17 Computer Peripheral Equipment, NEC stocks, EVLV ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

Evolv Technologies Holdings, In operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is EVLV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EVLV a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Evolv Technologies Holdings, In. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Evolv Technologies Holdings, In's fundamental quality profile registers 7.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +90.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EVLV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EVLV's 12 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Evolv Technologies Holdings, In Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Frequently Asked Questions About Evolv Technologies Holdings, In

What is Evolv Technologies Holdings, In's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Evolv Technologies Holdings, In (EVLV) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.03. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EVLV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.98, 0 of 12 active models suggest EVLV may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Evolv Technologies Holdings, In's business model in Computer Peripheral Equipment, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for EVLV?

Evolv Technologies Holdings, In's QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EVLV?

CirclFi analyzes EVLV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is EVLV a value trap in 2026?

Evolv Technologies Holdings, In's Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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