NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) Fair Value 2026

NL · Security & Protection Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) trades at $6.53, versus a $5.17 median fair value across its 7 active models — 20.9% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NL
Price
$6.53
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $5.17, 20.9% below the current price of $6.53. Estimates range from $4.44 to $10.83. NL scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NL’s -20.9% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NLI Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NL?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.53)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.44 -32.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $5.17 -20.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.37 -17.7%
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What Is NL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $4.44 to $10.83

CirclFi's 7 active models place NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) between $4.44 and $10.83 per share, a spread of 124% of the median. The median of that range — $5.17 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NL, against a current price of $6.53.

Low · EPVHigh · FTNN
$4.44median $5.17$10.83
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$4.44
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$10.83
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NLI Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $5.17. Trading at $6.53, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -20.9%), as 5 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +65.8% (fair value: $10.83), while EPV is the most conservative at -32.0% ($4.44). The spread between these extremes — +97.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NL?

7 of 13 models are currently active for NL. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NL is $5.17 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NL Rank in Security & Protection Services?

Among 22 Security & Protection Services stocks, NL ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

NLI Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NL a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for NLI Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NLI Holdings, Inc. scores 6.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +97.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NL's 7 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NLI Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Protection Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Security & Protection Services stocks with 13-model coverage

EVLVEvolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.0VRMEVerifyMe, Inc.QOC 6.7ADTADT Inc.QOC 7.5KSCPKnightscope, Inc.QOC 6.3MGMistras Group, Inc.QOC 7.7IVDAIveda Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.1SUGPSU Group Holdings LimitedQOC 6.1GFAIGuardforce AI Co., LimitedQOC 1.9BRCBrady CorporationQOC 8.8NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.6ALLEAllegion plcQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: EVLV · VRME · ADT · KSCP · MG · IVDA · SUGP · GFAI · BRC · NSSC · ALLE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NL?

7 companies across all industries closest to NL’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

LIENChicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.QOC 6.9CGAUCenterra Gold Inc.QOC 6.9ATECAlphatec Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9MIAXMiami International Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9GROWU.S. Global Investors, Inc.QOC 6.9NEOGNeogen CorporationQOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LIEN · CGAU · ATEC · MIAX · GROW · NEOG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About NLI Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is NLI Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL)'s intrinsic value at $5.17 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $4.44 to $10.83. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.53, 1 of 7 active models suggest NL may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $5.17, 20.9% below the current price of $6.53 — a consensus view that NL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NLI Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Security & Protection Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for NL?

NLI Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NL?

CirclFi analyzes NL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NL?

Of the 7 models currently active on NL, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $10.83 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $4.44. CirclFi's published fair value for NL is the median of that range, $5.17, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 124% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NL a value trap in 2026?

NLI Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) has a median fair value of $5.17 — 20.9% below the current price of $6.53 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NL valuation
  • Financial statements: NLI Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000072162) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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