NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) Fair Value 2026

NL · Industrial Inorganic Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) trades at $6.00, approximately 18% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $7.29. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NL
Price
$6.00
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +61.9% upside with 4% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$7.29 +21.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$2.65 -55.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$9.72 +61.9%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$5.62 -6.3%

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What Is NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NLI Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $6.66. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $6.00 (implied upside of +11.0%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 11 bullish models. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +89.5% (fair value: $11.37), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -67.2% ($1.97). The spread between these extremes — +156.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NL?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NL. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NL's intrinsic value at $7.29, implying +21.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NL Rank in Industrial Inorganic Chemicals?

Among 9 Industrial Inorganic Chemicals stocks, NL ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places NL in the top tier.

The Industrial Inorganic Chemicals sector introduces analytical considerations specific to manufacturing company businesses. For NLI Holdings, Inc., metrics like order backlog depth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NL a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for NLI Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NLI Holdings, Inc. scores 8.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +156.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NL's 11 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NLI Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Industrial Inorganic Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Industrial Inorganic Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: MTX · LXFR · LIN · VHI · LXU

Frequently Asked Questions About NLI Holdings, Inc.

What is NLI Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, NLI Holdings, Inc. (NL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $7.29. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.00, 7 of 11 active models suggest NL may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NLI Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Industrial Inorganic Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for NL?

NLI Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NL?

CirclFi analyzes NL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NL a value trap in 2026?

NLI Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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