Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR) Fair Value 2026

LXFR · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR) trades at $17.15, versus a $8.37 median fair value across its 12 active models — 51.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $6.43.

Key Facts

Ticker
LXFR
Price
$17.15
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +110.2% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $8.37, 51.2% below the current price of $17.15. Estimates range from $2.30 to $52.05. LXFR scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LXFR’s -51.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Luxfer Holdings PLC Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LXFR?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.43 -62.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.08 -76.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.13 -41.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $36.05 +110.2%
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What Is LXFR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $2.30 to $52.05

CirclFi's 12 active models place Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR) between $2.30 and $52.05 per share, a spread of 595% of the median. The median of that range — $8.37 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LXFR, against a current price of $17.15.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.30median $8.37$52.05
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$2.30
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$52.05
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LXFR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LXFR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Luxfer Holdings PLC's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $8.37. Trading at $17.15, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -51.2%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +203.5% (fair value: $52.05), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -86.6% ($2.30). The spread between these extremes — +290.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LXFR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for LXFR. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LXFR is $8.37 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $6.43 on its own, implying -62.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LXFR Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, LXFR ranks #46 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

Luxfer Holdings PLC's positioning within the Specialty Industrial Machinery segment means that working capital efficiency plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including aftermarket and services growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is LXFR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LXFR a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Luxfer Holdings PLC. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Luxfer Holdings PLC earns a quality score of 7.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +290.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LXFR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LXFR's 12 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Luxfer Holdings PLC Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

TWINTwin Disc, IncorporatedQOC 7.5SYMSymbotic Inc.QOC 7.3MIRMirion Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.6MIDDThe Middleby CorporationQOC 7.3JBTMJBT Marel CorporationQOC 7.6BWENBroadwind, Inc.QOC 7.0FISNDeep Fission, Inc.QOC 4.7MWAMueller Water Products, Inc.QOC 9.3SXIStandex International CorporationQOC 8.6EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: TWIN · SYM · MIR · MIDD · JBTM · BWEN · FISN · MWA · SXI · EPAC · WTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LXFR?

7 companies across all industries closest to LXFR’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

SBUXStarbucks CorporationQOC 7.4FPIFarmland Partners Inc.QOC 7.4NNINelnet, Inc.QOC 7.4WKCWorld Kinect CorporationQOC 7.4PFGPrincipal Financial Group, Inc.QOC 7.4OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SBUX · FPI · NNI · WKC · PFG · OCFC · NVDA

Where Does LXFR Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

LXFR is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Luxfer Holdings PLC’s Valuation?

What is Luxfer Holdings PLC's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR)'s intrinsic value at $8.37 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.30 to $52.05. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $6.43 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LXFR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.15, 4 of 12 active models suggest LXFR may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $8.37, 51.2% below the current price of $17.15 — a consensus view that LXFR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Luxfer Holdings PLC's business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for LXFR?

Luxfer Holdings PLC's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LXFR?

CirclFi analyzes LXFR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LXFR?

Of the 12 models currently active on LXFR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $52.05 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $2.30. CirclFi's published fair value for LXFR is the median of that range, $8.37, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 595% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LXFR a value trap in 2026?

Luxfer Holdings PLC's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR) has a median fair value of $8.37 — 51.2% below the current price of $17.15 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LXFR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LXFR valuation
  • Financial statements: Luxfer Holdings PLC 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001096056) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LXFR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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