Toronto Dominion Bank (The) (TD) Fair Value 2026

TD · Commercial Banks, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Toronto Dominion Bank (The) (TD) trades at $120.64, approximately 69% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $395.28. QOC: 7.0/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TD
Price
$120.64
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +227.7% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($120.64)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$395.28 +227.7%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$54.09 -55.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$158.65 +31.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$116.99 -3.0%

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What Is Toronto Dominion Bank (The) (TD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Toronto Dominion Bank (The) presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $120.64. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $162.91 (+35.0% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $395.28 (+227.7%), versus EPV at $54.09 (-55.2%). This +282.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TD?

12 of 13 models are currently active for TD. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TD's intrinsic value at $395.28, implying +227.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TD Rank in Commercial Banks, NEC?

Among 33 Commercial Banks, NEC stocks, TD ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Commercial Banks, NEC Stocks →

Toronto Dominion Bank (The)'s positioning within the Commercial Banks, NEC segment means that return on tangible equity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including digital banking adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TD a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for TD. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Toronto Dominion Bank (The). Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Toronto Dominion Bank (The) earns a quality score of 7.0/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +282.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TD's 12 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Toronto Dominion Bank (The) Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Commercial Banks, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Commercial Banks, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

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See all Commercial Banks, NEC stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Toronto Dominion Bank (The)

What is Toronto Dominion Bank (The)'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Toronto Dominion Bank (The) (TD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $395.28. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $120.64, 6 of 12 active models suggest TD may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Toronto Dominion Bank (The)'s business model in Commercial Banks, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for TD?

Toronto Dominion Bank (The)'s QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TD?

CirclFi analyzes TD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TD a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for TD at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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