The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Fair Value 2026

TD · Banks - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (11/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) trades at $121.09, versus a $74.66 median fair value across its 6 active models — 38.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 11/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TD
Price
$121.09
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
11/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $74.66, 38.3% below the current price of $121.09. Estimates range from $60.71 to $212.35. TD scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 11/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TD’s -38.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Diversified sector median is -8.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Toronto-Dominion Bank Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TD?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($121.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $64.70 -46.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $78.77 -35.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $60.71 -49.9%
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What Is TD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $60.71 to $212.35

CirclFi's 6 active models place The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) between $60.71 and $212.35 per share, a spread of 203% of the median. The median of that range — $74.66 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TD, against a current price of $121.09.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$60.71median $74.66$212.35
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$60.71
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$212.35
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Toronto-Dominion Bank's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $74.66. Trading at $121.09, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -38.3%), as 4 of 6 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $212.35 (+75.4%), versus Markov DDM at $60.71 (-49.9%). This +125.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TD?

6 of 13 models are currently active for TD. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TD is $74.66 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TD Rank in Banks - Diversified?

Among 20 Banks - Diversified stocks, TD ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

The Toronto-Dominion Bank's positioning within the Banks - Diversified segment means that return on tangible equity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including digital banking adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TD a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for The Toronto-Dominion Bank. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, The Toronto-Dominion Bank earns a quality score of 7.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +125.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TD's 6 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Toronto-Dominion Bank Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

INGING Groep N.V.QOC 7.4BNSThe Bank of Nova ScotiaQOC 7.2CCitigroup Inc.QOC 7.5SANBanco Santander, S.A.QOC 7.1MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.QOC 7.9SMFGSumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.QOC 6.6UBSUBS Group AGQOC 2.9RYRoyal Bank of CanadaQOC 8.4BNYThe Bank of New York Mellon CorporationQOC 8.1BBVABanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.QOC 8.9CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: ING · BNS · C · SAN · MUFG · SMFG · UBS · RY · BNY · BBVA · CM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TD?

7 companies across all industries closest to TD’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

SPROSpero Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.4IPIIntrepid Potash, Inc.QOC 7.4NSLRNeostellar Capital Corp.QOC 7.4FULH.B. Fuller CompanyQOC 7.4SCLStepan CompanyQOC 7.4ROGRogers CorporationQOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SPRO · IPI · NSLR · FUL · SCL · ROG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Toronto-Dominion Bank’s Valuation?

What is The Toronto-Dominion Bank's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)'s intrinsic value at $74.66 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $60.71 to $212.35. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $121.09, 2 of 6 active models suggest TD may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $74.66, 38.3% below the current price of $121.09 — a consensus view that TD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Toronto-Dominion Bank's business model in Banks - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for TD?

The Toronto-Dominion Bank's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TD?

CirclFi analyzes TD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TD?

Of the 6 models currently active on TD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $212.35 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $60.71. CirclFi's published fair value for TD is the median of that range, $74.66, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 203% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TD a value trap in 2026?

The Toronto-Dominion Bank's Value Trap score is 11/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) has a median fair value of $74.66 — 38.3% below the current price of $121.09 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TD valuation
  • Financial statements: The Toronto-Dominion Bank 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000947263) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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