CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW) Fair Value 2026

CSW · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW) trades at $318.47, versus a $126.68 median fair value across its 11 active models — 60.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $152.77.

Key Facts

Ticker
CSW
Price
$318.47
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $126.68, 60.2% below the current price of $318.47. Estimates range from $54.19 to $398.70. CSW scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CSW’s -60.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy CSW Industrials, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CSW?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($318.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $152.77 -52.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $54.19 -83.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $126.68 -60.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $199.76 -37.3%
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What Is CSW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $54.19 to $398.70

CirclFi's 11 active models place CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW) between $54.19 and $398.70 per share, a spread of 272% of the median. The median of that range — $126.68 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CSW, against a current price of $318.47.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$54.19median $126.68$398.70
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$54.19
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$398.70
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CSW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CSW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CSW Industrials, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $126.68, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $318.47. With 10 out of 11 models flagging downside (-60.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $398.70 (+25.2%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $54.19 (-83.0%). This +108.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about CSW Industrials, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CSW?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CSW. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CSW is $126.68 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $152.77 on its own, implying -52.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CSW Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, CSW ranks #24 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places CSW in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

Within the Specialty Industrial Machinery space, CSW Industrials, Inc. competes in an environment where working capital efficiency often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CSW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CSW a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for CSW Industrials, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, CSW Industrials, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +108.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CSW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CSW's 11 active models, average confidence is 57%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CSW Industrials, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.QOC 8.7SXIStandex International CorporationQOC 8.6KAIKadant Inc.QOC 8.7GEVGE Vernova Inc.QOC 8.6DOVDover CorporationQOC 8.7FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc.QOC 8.5TWINTwin Disc, IncorporatedQOC 7.5HYORHyOrc CorporationQOC 4.7PHParker-Hannifin CorporationQOC 9.3EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: ITW · SXI · KAI · GEV · DOV · FELE · TWIN · HYOR · PH · EPAC · WTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CSW?

7 companies across all industries closest to CSW’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

WFRDWeatherford International plcQOC 8.6ZWSZurn Elkay Water Solutions CorporationQOC 8.6FMBHFirst Mid Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.6NAGENiagen Bioscience, Inc.QOC 8.6EWBCEast West Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.6NTCTNetScout Systems, Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WFRD · ZWS · FMBH · NAGE · EWBC · NTCT · NVDA

Where Does CSW Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

CSW is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About CSW Industrials, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is CSW Industrials, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW)'s intrinsic value at $126.68 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $54.19 to $398.70. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $152.77 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CSW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $318.47, 1 of 11 active models suggest CSW may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $126.68, 60.2% below the current price of $318.47 — a consensus view that CSW is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CSW Industrials, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for CSW?

CSW Industrials, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CSW?

CirclFi analyzes CSW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CSW?

Of the 11 models currently active on CSW, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $398.70 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $54.19. CirclFi's published fair value for CSW is the median of that range, $126.68, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 272% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CSW a value trap in 2026?

CSW Industrials, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW) has a median fair value of $126.68 — 60.2% below the current price of $318.47 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CSW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CSW valuation
  • Financial statements: CSW Industrials, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001624794) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CSW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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