Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Fair Value 2026

NOC · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) trades at $483.11, versus a $555.39 median fair value across its 11 active models — 15.0% above the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $484.02.

Key Facts

Ticker
NOC
Price
$483.11
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +15.0% upside with 26% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $555.39, 15.0% above the current price of $483.11. Estimates range from $231.37 to $1329.40. NOC scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. NOC’s +15.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -27.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Northrop Grumman Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NOC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($483.11)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $484.02 +0.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $352.59 -27.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $555.39 +15.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $231.37 -52.1%
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What Is NOC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $231.37 to $1329.40

CirclFi's 11 active models place Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) between $231.37 and $1329.40 per share, a spread of 198% of the median. The median of that range — $555.39 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NOC, against a current price of $483.11.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$231.37median $555.39$1329.40
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$231.37
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1329.40
Model agreement8 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NOC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NOC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Northrop Grumman Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $555.39, suggesting a +15.0% median upside from the current price of $483.11. While 8 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $1,329.40 (+175.2%), versus EROIC at $231.37 (-52.1%). This +227.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NOC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NOC. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NOC is $555.39 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $484.02 on its own, implying +0.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NOC Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, NOC ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places NOC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Northrop Grumman Corporation's positioning within the Aerospace & Defense segment means that aftermarket revenue growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including commercial aviation recovery — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NOC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NOC a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Northrop Grumman Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Northrop Grumman Corporation scores 8.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +227.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NOC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NOC's 11 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Northrop Grumman Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

CODACoda Octopus Group, Inc.QOC 8.6RTXRTX CorporationQOC 8.5GEGE AerospaceQOC 8.6AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc.QOC 8.5HXLHexcel CorporationQOC 8.7BWXTBWX Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.4BAThe Boeing CompanyQOC 7.3DPRODraganfly Inc.QOC 5.7HAWKHawkEye 360, Inc.QOC 4.0BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: CODA · RTX · GE · AXON · HXL · BWXT · BA · DPRO · HAWK · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NOC?

7 companies across all industries closest to NOC’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

FINVFinVolution GroupQOC 8.6FIVEFive Below, Inc.QOC 8.6CSWCSW Industrials, Inc.QOC 8.6EBAYeBay Inc.QOC 8.6NTCTNetScout Systems, Inc.QOC 8.6NECBNortheast Community Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FINV · FIVE · CSW · EBAY · NTCT · NECB · NVDA

Where Does NOC Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

NOC is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Northrop Grumman Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Northrop Grumman Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)'s intrinsic value at $555.39 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $231.37 to $1329.40. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $484.02 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NOC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $483.11, 9 of 11 active models suggest NOC may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $555.39, 15.0% above the current price of $483.11 — a consensus view that NOC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Northrop Grumman Corporation's business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for NOC?

Northrop Grumman Corporation's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NOC?

CirclFi analyzes NOC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NOC?

Of the 11 models currently active on NOC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $1329.40 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $231.37. CirclFi's published fair value for NOC is the median of that range, $555.39, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 198% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NOC a value trap in 2026?

Northrop Grumman Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) has a median fair value of $555.39 — 15.0% above the current price of $483.11 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NOC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NOC valuation
  • Financial statements: Northrop Grumman Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001133421) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NOC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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