Dover Corporation (DOV) Fair Value 2026

DOV · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Dover Corporation (DOV) trades at $201.82, versus a $103.22 median fair value across its 10 active models — 48.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $111.51.

Key Facts

Ticker
DOV
Price
$201.82
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Dover Corporation (DOV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Dover Corporation (DOV) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $103.22, 48.9% below the current price of $201.82. Estimates range from $53.07 to $330.31. DOV scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. DOV’s -48.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Dover Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DOV?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($201.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $111.51 -44.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $65.00 -67.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $105.22 -47.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $67.33 -66.6%
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What Is DOV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $53.07 to $330.31

CirclFi's 10 active models place Dover Corporation (DOV) between $53.07 and $330.31 per share, a spread of 269% of the median. The median of that range — $103.22 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DOV, against a current price of $201.82.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$53.07median $103.22$330.31
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$53.07
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$330.31
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DOV. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DOV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Dover Corporation (DOV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Dover Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $103.22, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $201.82. With 8 out of 10 models flagging downside (-48.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $330.31 (+63.7%), versus Markov DDM at $53.07 (-73.7%). This +137.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DOV?

10 of 13 models are currently active for DOV. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DOV is $103.22 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $111.51 on its own, implying -44.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DOV Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, DOV ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places DOV in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

Within the Specialty Industrial Machinery space, Dover Corporation competes in an environment where order backlog depth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is DOV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DOV a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Dover Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Dover Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +137.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DOV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DOV's 10 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Dover Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

ROKRockwell Automation, Inc.QOC 8.7KAIKadant Inc.QOC 8.7DCIDonaldson Company, Inc.QOC 8.7ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.QOC 8.7GRCThe Gorman-Rupp CompanyQOC 8.8CSWCSW Industrials, Inc.QOC 8.6JCSEJE Cleantech Holdings LimitedQOC 7.7AUSIAura Systems, Inc.QOC 4.9LBGJLi Bang International Corporation Inc.QOC 2.3EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: ROK · KAI · DCI · ITW · GRC · CSW · JCSE · AUSI · LBGJ · EPAC · WTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DOV?

7 companies across all industries closest to DOV’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

WCNWaste Connections, Inc.QOC 8.7SEZLSezzle Inc.QOC 8.7MNSTMonster Beverage CorporationQOC 8.7HSTMHealthStream, Inc.QOC 8.7TELTE Connectivity plcQOC 8.7FCAPFirst Capital, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WCN · SEZL · MNST · HSTM · TEL · FCAP · NVDA

Where Does DOV Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

DOV is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Dover Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Dover Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Dover Corporation (DOV)'s intrinsic value at $103.22 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $53.07 to $330.31. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $111.51 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DOV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $201.82, 2 of 10 active models suggest DOV may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $103.22, 48.9% below the current price of $201.82 — a consensus view that DOV is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Dover Corporation's business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for DOV?

Dover Corporation's QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DOV?

CirclFi analyzes DOV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DOV?

Of the 10 models currently active on DOV, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $330.31 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $53.07. CirclFi's published fair value for DOV is the median of that range, $103.22, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 269% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DOV a value trap in 2026?

Dover Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Dover Corporation (DOV) has a median fair value of $103.22 — 48.9% below the current price of $201.82 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DOV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DOV valuation
  • Financial statements: Dover Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000029905) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DOV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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