Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) Fair Value 2026

MNST · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) trades at $46.70, versus a $22.38 median fair value across its 9 active models — 52.1% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $25.17.

Key Facts

Ticker
MNST
Price
$46.70
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $22.38, 52.1% below the current price of $46.70. Estimates range from $9.09 to $43.58. MNST scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MNST’s -52.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Monster Beverage Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MNST?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($46.70)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $25.17 -46.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.34 -67.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $22.38 -52.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $35.38 -24.2%
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What Is MNST's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $9.09 to $43.58

CirclFi's 9 active models place Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) between $9.09 and $43.58 per share, a spread of 154% of the median. The median of that range — $22.38 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MNST, against a current price of $46.70.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$9.09median $22.38$43.58
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$9.09
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$43.58
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MNST. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MNST, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Monster Beverage Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $22.38. Trading at its current price of $46.70, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -52.1%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -6.7% (fair value: $43.58), while EROIC is the most conservative at -80.5% ($9.09). The spread between these extremes — +73.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MNST?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MNST. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for MNST is $22.38 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $25.17 on its own, implying -46.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MNST Rank in Beverages - Non-Alcoholic?

Among 20 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, MNST ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places MNST in the top tier.

The Beverages - Non-Alcoholic sector introduces analytical considerations specific to retail business businesses. For Monster Beverage Corporation, metrics like e-commerce penetration rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MNST a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MNST a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Monster Beverage Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Monster Beverage Corporation scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +73.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MNST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MNST's 9 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Monster Beverage Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Beverages - Non-Alcoholic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks with 13-model coverage

COCOThe Vita Coco Company, Inc.QOC 8.8FIZZNational Beverage Corp.QOC 8.6CELHCelsius Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8BUDABuda Juice, Inc.QOC 8.6KOFCoca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 8.8KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.QOC 8.2MOJOEQUATOR Beverage CompanyQOC 7.2BRFHBarfresh Food Group, Inc.QOC 5.4COKECoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.QOC 9.1CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners PLCQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: COCO · FIZZ · CELH · BUDA · KOF · KDP · MOJO · BRFH · COKE · CCEP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MNST?

7 companies across all industries closest to MNST’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

TELTE Connectivity plcQOC 8.7WCNWaste Connections, Inc.QOC 8.7TCBKTriCo BancsharesQOC 8.7DOVDover CorporationQOC 8.7ESMCEscalon Medical Corp.QOC 8.7SEZLSezzle Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TEL · WCN · TCBK · DOV · ESMC · SEZL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Monster Beverage Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Monster Beverage Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST)'s intrinsic value at $22.38 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $9.09 to $43.58. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $25.17 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MNST overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $46.70, 0 of 9 active models suggest MNST may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $22.38, 52.1% below the current price of $46.70 — a consensus view that MNST is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Monster Beverage Corporation's business model in Beverages - Non-Alcoholic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for MNST?

Monster Beverage Corporation's QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MNST?

CirclFi analyzes MNST with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MNST?

Of the 9 models currently active on MNST, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $43.58 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $9.09. CirclFi's published fair value for MNST is the median of that range, $22.38, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 154% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MNST a value trap in 2026?

Monster Beverage Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) has a median fair value of $22.38 — 52.1% below the current price of $46.70 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MNST/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MNST valuation
  • Financial statements: Monster Beverage Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000865752) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MNST as of ; valuations recomputed .

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