National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Fair Value 2026

FIZZ · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) trades at $32.47, versus a $38.05 median fair value across its 9 active models — 17.2% above the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $38.05.

Key Facts

Ticker
FIZZ
Price
$32.47
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +17.2% upside with 74% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $38.05, 17.2% above the current price of $32.47. Estimates range from $15.11 to $52.81. FIZZ scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FIZZ’s +17.2% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy National Beverage Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FIZZ?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($32.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.05 +17.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.97 -26.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $34.11 +5.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.11 -53.5%
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What Is FIZZ's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $15.11 to $52.81

CirclFi's 9 active models place National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) between $15.11 and $52.81 per share, a spread of 99% of the median. The median of that range — $38.05 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FIZZ, against a current price of $32.47.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$15.11median $38.05$52.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$15.11
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$52.81
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FIZZ, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, National Beverage Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $38.05, suggesting a +17.2% median upside from the current price of $32.47. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $52.81 (+62.6%), versus EROIC at $15.11 (-53.5%). This +116.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About FIZZ?

9 of 13 models are currently active for FIZZ. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FIZZ is $38.05 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $38.05 on its own, implying +17.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FIZZ Rank in Beverages - Non-Alcoholic?

Among 20 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, FIZZ ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places FIZZ in the top tier.

As a consumer-facing company, National Beverage Corp. operates in a sector where same-store sales growth (comps) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating FIZZ should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is FIZZ a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FIZZ a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for National Beverage Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, National Beverage Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +116.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FIZZ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FIZZ's 9 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy National Beverage Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Beverages - Non-Alcoholic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks with 13-model coverage

MNSTMonster Beverage CorporationQOC 8.7BUDABuda Juice, Inc.QOC 8.6COCOThe Vita Coco Company, Inc.QOC 8.8KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.QOC 8.2CELHCelsius Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8PEPPepsiCo, Inc.QOC 8.1ZVIAZevia PBCQOC 6.5REEDReed's, Inc.QOC 5.2KOThe Coca-Cola CompanyQOC 8.9CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners PLCQOC 9.1COKECoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: MNST · BUDA · COCO · KDP · CELH · PEP · ZVIA · REED · KO · CCEP · COKE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FIZZ?

7 companies across all industries closest to FIZZ’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

IHiHuman Inc.QOC 8.6PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6BSVNBank7 Corp.QOC 8.6FMXFomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 8.6RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc.QOC 8.6EVREvercore Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IH · PARR · BSVN · FMX · RJF · EVR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About National Beverage Corp.’s Valuation?

What is National Beverage Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)'s intrinsic value at $38.05 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.11 to $52.81. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $38.05 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FIZZ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $32.47, 6 of 9 active models suggest FIZZ may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $38.05, 17.2% above the current price of $32.47 — a consensus view that FIZZ is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits National Beverage Corp.'s business model in Beverages - Non-Alcoholic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for FIZZ?

National Beverage Corp.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FIZZ?

CirclFi analyzes FIZZ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FIZZ?

Of the 9 models currently active on FIZZ, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $52.81 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $15.11. CirclFi's published fair value for FIZZ is the median of that range, $38.05, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 99% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FIZZ a value trap in 2026?

National Beverage Corp.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) has a median fair value of $38.05 — 17.2% above the current price of $32.47 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FIZZ/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FIZZ valuation
  • Financial statements: National Beverage Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000069891) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FIZZ as of ; valuations recomputed .

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