Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI) Fair Value 2026

MMSI · Medical Instruments & Supplies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI) trades at $90.49, versus a $72.75 median fair value across its 10 active models — 19.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $94.15.

Key Facts

Ticker
MMSI
Price
$90.49
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +22.2% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $72.75, 19.6% below the current price of $90.49. Estimates range from $14.07 to $142.05. MMSI scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MMSI’s -19.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Medical Instruments & Supplies sector median is -29.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Merit Medical Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MMSI?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($90.49)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $94.15 +4.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.07 -84.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $65.33 -27.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $110.61 +22.2%
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What Is MMSI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $14.07 to $142.05

CirclFi's 10 active models place Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI) between $14.07 and $142.05 per share, a spread of 176% of the median. The median of that range — $72.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MMSI, against a current price of $90.49.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$14.07median $72.75$142.05
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$14.07
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$142.05
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MMSI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MMSI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Merit Medical Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $72.75. Trading at $90.49, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -19.6%), as 7 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +57.0% (fair value: $142.05), while EPV is the most conservative at -84.4% ($14.07). The spread between these extremes — +141.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MMSI?

10 of 13 models are currently active for MMSI. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MMSI is $72.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $94.15 on its own, implying +4.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MMSI Rank in Medical Instruments & Supplies?

Among 56 Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, MMSI ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places MMSI in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Instruments & Supplies Stocks →

Merit Medical Systems, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MMSI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MMSI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Merit Medical Systems, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Merit Medical Systems, Inc. scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +141.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MMSI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MMSI's 10 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Merit Medical Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Instruments & Supplies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks with 13-model coverage

ATRAptarGroup, Inc.QOC 8.9WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.QOC 8.7LMATLeMaitre Vascular, Inc.QOC 9.3COOThe Cooper Companies, Inc.QOC 8.5RMDResMed Inc.QOC 9.4NEPHNephros, Inc.QOC 8.4WRBYWarby Parker Inc.QOC 7.6BLCOBausch + Lomb CorporationQOC 6.3ZTEKZentek Ltd.QOC 5.4ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: ATR · WST · LMAT · COO · RMD · NEPH · WRBY · BLCO · ZTEK · ISRG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MMSI?

6 companies across all industries closest to MMSI’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

MDXGMiMedx Group, Inc.QOC 8.7MCYMercury General CorporationQOC 8.7ESEESCO Technologies Inc.QOC 8.7WSOWatsco, Inc.QOC 8.7FCAPFirst Capital, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MDXG · MCY · ESE · WSO · FCAP · NVDA

Where Does MMSI Sit in CirclFi's Medical Instruments & Supplies Rankings?

MMSI is ranked against every other Medical Instruments & Supplies stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Merit Medical Systems, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Merit Medical Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI)'s intrinsic value at $72.75 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $14.07 to $142.05. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $94.15 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MMSI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $90.49, 3 of 10 active models suggest MMSI may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $72.75, 19.6% below the current price of $90.49 — a consensus view that MMSI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Merit Medical Systems, Inc.'s business model in Medical Instruments & Supplies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for MMSI?

Merit Medical Systems, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MMSI?

CirclFi analyzes MMSI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MMSI?

Of the 10 models currently active on MMSI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $142.05 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $14.07. CirclFi's published fair value for MMSI is the median of that range, $72.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 176% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MMSI a value trap in 2026?

Merit Medical Systems, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI) has a median fair value of $72.75 — 19.6% below the current price of $90.49 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MMSI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MMSI valuation
  • Financial statements: Merit Medical Systems, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000856982) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MMSI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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