HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM) Fair Value 2026

HSTM · Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM) trades at $28.72, approximately 20% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $35.72. QOC: 9.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HSTM
Price
$28.72
Quality Score
9.6/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +24.4% upside with 68% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($28.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $35.72 +24.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $19.32 -32.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
 $24.60 -14.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $34.46 +20.0%

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What Is HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HealthStream, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $25.80. Trading at $28.72, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -10.2%), as 8 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +84.6% (fair value: $53.01), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -69.2% ($8.85). The spread between these extremes — +153.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HSTM?

13 of 13 models are currently active for HSTM. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HSTM's intrinsic value at $35.72, implying +24.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HSTM Rank in Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.?

Among 75 Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. stocks, HSTM ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.6 places HSTM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. Stocks →

HealthStream, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HSTM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HSTM a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for HealthStream, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, HealthStream, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.6/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +153.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HSTM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HSTM's 13 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy HealthStream, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. stocks with 13-model coverage

GOOGAlphabet Inc.QOC 10.0GOOGLAlphabet Inc.QOC 10.0TTDThe Trade Desk, Inc.QOC 10.0BZKANZHUN LIMITED - American DepoQOC 10.0BIDUBaidu, Inc.QOC 9.8FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc.QOC 9.8EVEREverQuote, Inc.QOC 9.3MGNIMagnite, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: GOOG · GOOGL · TTD · BZ · BIDU

See all Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About HealthStream, Inc.

What is HealthStream, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $35.72. The Quality of Company score is 9.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HSTM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $28.72, 5 of 13 active models suggest HSTM may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits HealthStream, Inc.'s business model in Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc..

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.6 mean for HSTM?

HealthStream, Inc.'s QOC of 9.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HSTM?

CirclFi analyzes HSTM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HSTM a value trap in 2026?

HealthStream, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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