Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Fair Value 2026

CSCO · Communication Equipment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) trades at $112.15, versus a $44.43 median fair value across its 10 active models — 60.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $40.83.

Key Facts

Ticker
CSCO
Price
$112.15
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $44.43, 60.4% below the current price of $112.15. Estimates range from $26.04 to $181.68. CSCO scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CSCO’s -60.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Communication Equipment sector median is -50.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cisco Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CSCO?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($112.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $40.83 -63.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.73 -71.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $44.05 -60.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $53.22 -52.5%
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What Is CSCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $26.04 to $181.68

CirclFi's 10 active models place Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) between $26.04 and $181.68 per share, a spread of 350% of the median. The median of that range — $44.43 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CSCO, against a current price of $112.15.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$26.04median $44.43$181.68
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$26.04
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$181.68
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CSCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CSCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cisco Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $44.43. Trading at its current price of $112.15, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -60.4%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $181.68 (+62.0%), versus EROIC at $26.04 (-76.8%). This +138.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CSCO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for CSCO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CSCO is $44.43 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $40.83 on its own, implying -63.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CSCO Rank in Communication Equipment?

Among 47 Communication Equipment stocks, CSCO ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places CSCO in the top tier.

Cisco Systems, Inc.'s positioning within the Communication Equipment segment means that EBITDA margin plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including enterprise connectivity demand — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CSCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CSCO a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Cisco Systems, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Cisco Systems, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +138.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CSCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CSCO's 10 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cisco Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Communication Equipment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Communication Equipment stocks with 13-model coverage

BDCBelden Inc.QOC 8.5ERICTelefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)QOC 8.3AVNWAviat Networks, Inc.QOC 8.5CIENCiena CorporationQOC 8.3EXTRExtreme Networks, Inc.QOC 9.1ZBRAZebra Technologies CorporationQOC 8.1LTRXLantronix, Inc.QOC 7.1SILCSilicom Ltd.QOC 6.7TSATTelesat CorporationQOC 4.8BKTIBK Technologies CorporationQOC 9.6UIUbiquiti Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BDC · ERIC · AVNW · CIEN · EXTR · ZBRA · LTRX · SILC · TSAT · BKTI · UI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CSCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to CSCO’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

STNStantec Inc.QOC 8.5CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIGQOC 8.5AXONAxon Enterprise, Inc.QOC 8.5INVHInvitation Homes Inc.QOC 8.5RSSSResearch Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.5RVRFRiver Financial CorporationQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: STN · CIG · AXON · INVH · RSSS · RVRF · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cisco Systems, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Cisco Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)'s intrinsic value at $44.43 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $26.04 to $181.68. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $40.83 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CSCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $112.15, 1 of 10 active models suggest CSCO may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $44.43, 60.4% below the current price of $112.15 — a consensus view that CSCO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cisco Systems, Inc.'s business model in Communication Equipment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for CSCO?

Cisco Systems, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CSCO?

CirclFi analyzes CSCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CSCO?

Of the 10 models currently active on CSCO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $181.68 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $26.04. CirclFi's published fair value for CSCO is the median of that range, $44.43, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 350% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CSCO a value trap in 2026?

Cisco Systems, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) has a median fair value of $44.43 — 60.4% below the current price of $112.15 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CSCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CSCO valuation
  • Financial statements: Cisco Systems, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000858877) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CSCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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