Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Fair Value 2026

AAOI · Communication Equipment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) trades at $106.23, versus a $127.22 median fair value across its 2 active models — 19.8% above the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AAOI
Price
$106.23
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +78.0% upside with 45% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $127.22, 19.8% above the current price of $106.23. Estimates range from $65.37 to $189.07. AAOI scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AAOI’s +19.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Communication Equipment sector median is -49.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AAOI?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($106.23)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $189.07 +78.0%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $65.37 -38.5%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $127.22, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $106.23. While the median implied return is +19.8%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +116.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $189.07 (+78.0%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $65.37 (-38.5%). This +116.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AAOI?

2 of 13 models are currently active for AAOI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AAOI is $127.22 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AAOI Rank in Communication Equipment?

Among 47 Communication Equipment stocks, AAOI ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Communication Equipment sector introduces analytical considerations specific to telecommunications businesses. For Applied Optoelectronics, Inc., metrics like fiber/5G penetration provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AAOI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AAOI a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. scores 6.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +116.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AAOI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AAOI's 2 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Communication Equipment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Communication Equipment stocks with 13-model coverage

MITQMoving iMage Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.6UTSIUTStarcom Holdings Corp.QOC 6.4SILCSilicom Ltd.QOC 6.7WATTEnergous CorporationQOC 6.3FKWLFranklin Wireless Corp.QOC 6.7ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc.QOC 6.3CRNTCeragon Networks Ltd.QOC 3.0ERICTelefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)QOC 8.3FEIMFrequency Electronics, Inc.QOC 7.1BKTIBK Technologies CorporationQOC 9.6UIUbiquiti Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: MITQ · UTSI · SILC · WATT · FKWL · ASTS · CRNT · ERIC · FEIM · BKTI · UI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AAOI?

7 companies across all industries closest to AAOI’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

BOCBoston Omaha CorporationQOC 6.6GEVOGevo, Inc.QOC 6.6BDCOBlue Dolphin Energy CompanyQOC 6.6AXSMAxsome Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.6PYYXPyxus International, Inc.QOC 6.6COE51Talk Online Education GroupQOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BOC · GEVO · BDCO · AXSM · PYYX · COE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)'s intrinsic value at $127.22 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $65.37 to $189.07. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AAOI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $106.23, 1 of 2 active models suggest AAOI may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $127.22, 19.8% above the current price of $106.23 — a consensus view that AAOI is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s business model in Communication Equipment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for AAOI?

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AAOI?

CirclFi analyzes AAOI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AAOI a value trap in 2026?

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) has a median fair value of $127.22 — 19.8% above the current price of $106.23 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AAOI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AAOI valuation
  • Financial statements: Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001158114) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AAOI as of ; valuations recomputed .