TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) Fair Value 2026

TXNM · Utilities - Regulated Electric ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) trades at $58.55, versus a $44.23 median fair value across its 9 active models — 24.5% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $72.99.

Key Facts

Ticker
TXNM
Price
$58.55
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +24.7% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $44.23, 24.5% below the current price of $58.55. Estimates range from $17.70 to $96.91. TXNM scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. TXNM’s -24.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Electric sector median is -22.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TXNM Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TXNM?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($58.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $72.99 +24.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $44.23 -24.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.70 -69.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.41 -37.8%
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What Is TXNM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $17.70 to $96.91

CirclFi's 9 active models place TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) between $17.70 and $96.91 per share, a spread of 179% of the median. The median of that range — $44.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TXNM, against a current price of $58.55.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$17.70median $44.23$96.91
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$17.70
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$96.91
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TXNM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TXNM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on TXNM Energy, Inc. at its current price of $58.55. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $44.23 (-24.5% vs price), with 6 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $96.91 (+65.5%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $17.70 (-69.8%). This +135.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about TXNM Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TXNM?

9 of 13 models are currently active for TXNM. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TXNM is $44.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $72.99 on its own, implying +24.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TXNM Rank in Utilities - Regulated Electric?

Among 39 Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, TXNM ranks #34 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

As a utility sector, TXNM Energy, Inc. operates in a sector where regulatory lag is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TXNM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TXNM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TXNM a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for TXNM Energy, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, TXNM Energy, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.6/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +135.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TXNM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TXNM's 9 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TXNM Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Electric Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks with 13-model coverage

SOThe Southern CompanyQOC 6.7EDNEmpresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad AnónimaQOC 6.5EMAEmera IncorporatedQOC 6.8FEFirstEnergy Corp.QOC 6.5DDominion Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8NWENorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.QOC 6.2CEPUCentral Puerto S.A.QOC 8.1PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group IncorporatedQOC 7.4PORPortland General Electric CompanyQOC 7.1CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIGQOC 8.5GNEGenie Energy Ltd.QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: SO · EDN · EMA · FE · D · NWE · CEPU · PEG · POR · CIG · GNE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TXNM?

7 companies across all industries closest to TXNM’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

NCMINational CineMedia, Inc.QOC 6.6MMEDMiniMed Group, Inc.QOC 6.6ONTOnterris, Inc.QOC 6.6AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.QOC 6.6TRTTrio-Tech InternationalQOC 6.6SDRLSeadrill LimitedQOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NCMI · MMED · ONT · AAOI · TRT · SDRL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About TXNM Energy, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is TXNM Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)'s intrinsic value at $44.23 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $17.70 to $96.91. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $72.99 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TXNM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $58.55, 3 of 9 active models suggest TXNM may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $44.23, 24.5% below the current price of $58.55 — a consensus view that TXNM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TXNM Energy, Inc.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Electric.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for TXNM?

TXNM Energy, Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TXNM?

CirclFi analyzes TXNM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TXNM?

Of the 9 models currently active on TXNM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $96.91 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $17.70. CirclFi's published fair value for TXNM is the median of that range, $44.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 179% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TXNM a value trap in 2026?

TXNM Energy, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) has a median fair value of $44.23 — 24.5% below the current price of $58.55 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TXNM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TXNM valuation
  • Financial statements: TXNM Energy, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001108426) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TXNM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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