FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) Fair Value 2026

FE · Utilities - Regulated Electric ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) trades at $45.88, versus a $37.02 median fair value across its 10 active models — 19.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $125.39.

Key Facts

Ticker
FE
Price
$45.88
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +173.3% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $37.02, 19.3% below the current price of $45.88. Estimates range from $6.72 to $125.39. FE scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. FE’s -19.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Electric sector median is -25.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy FirstEnergy Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FE?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($45.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $125.39 +173.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.72 -85.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $34.15 -25.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.91 -69.7%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is FE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $6.72 to $125.39

CirclFi's 10 active models place FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) between $6.72 and $125.39 per share, a spread of 321% of the median. The median of that range — $37.02 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FE, against a current price of $45.88.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$6.72median $37.02$125.39
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$6.72
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$125.39
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on FirstEnergy Corp. at its current price of $45.88. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $37.02 (-19.3% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +173.3% (fair value: $125.39), while EPV is the most conservative at -85.3% ($6.72). The spread between these extremes — +258.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About FE?

10 of 13 models are currently active for FE. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FE is $37.02 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $125.39 on its own, implying +173.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FE Rank in Utilities - Regulated Electric?

Among 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, FE ranks #36 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

As a regulated utility, FirstEnergy Corp. operates in a sector where customer growth rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating FE should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is FE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FE a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for FirstEnergy Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, FirstEnergy Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +258.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FE's 10 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy FirstEnergy Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Electric Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks with 13-model coverage

TXNMTXNM Energy, Inc.QOC 6.6EDNEmpresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad AnónimaQOC 6.5SOThe Southern CompanyQOC 6.7NWENorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.QOC 6.2EMAEmera IncorporatedQOC 6.8NKLRTerra Innovatum Global N.V.QOC 5.3NEENextEra Energy, Inc.QOC 7.9EVRGEvergy, Inc.QOC 7.4AEEAmeren CorporationQOC 7.1CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIGQOC 8.5GNEGenie Energy Ltd.QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: TXNM · EDN · SO · NWE · EMA · NKLR · NEE · EVRG · AEE · CIG · GNE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FE?

7 companies across all industries closest to FE’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

MATWMatthews International CorporationQOC 6.5RHNORhino Bitcoin Inc.QOC 6.5FIGFigma, Inc.QOC 6.5SNESSenesTech, Inc.QOC 6.5AIROAIRO Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5UISUnisys CorporationQOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MATW · RHNO · FIG · SNES · AIRO · UIS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About FirstEnergy Corp.’s Valuation?

What is FirstEnergy Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)'s intrinsic value at $37.02 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $6.72 to $125.39. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $125.39 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $45.88, 3 of 10 active models suggest FE may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $37.02, 19.3% below the current price of $45.88 — a consensus view that FE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits FirstEnergy Corp.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Electric.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for FE?

FirstEnergy Corp.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FE?

CirclFi analyzes FE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FE?

Of the 10 models currently active on FE, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $125.39 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $6.72. CirclFi's published fair value for FE is the median of that range, $37.02, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 321% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FE a value trap in 2026?

FirstEnergy Corp.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) has a median fair value of $37.02 — 19.3% below the current price of $45.88 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FE valuation
  • Financial statements: FirstEnergy Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001031296) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FE as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on FE.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

6 models hidden for FE Unlock All 10 — $39/mo