Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) Fair Value 2026

HNRG · Utilities - Independent Power Producers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) trades at $14.81, versus a $7.75 median fair value across its 8 active models — 47.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.34.

Key Facts

Ticker
HNRG
Price
$14.81
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $7.75, 47.7% below the current price of $14.81. Estimates range from $0.59 to $30.61. HNRG scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. HNRG’s -47.7% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hallador Energy Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HNRG?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.34 -91.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $7.64 -48.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.87 -46.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.59 -96.0%
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What Is HNRG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.59 to $30.61

CirclFi's 8 active models place Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) between $0.59 and $30.61 per share, a spread of 387% of the median. The median of that range — $7.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HNRG, against a current price of $14.81.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$0.59median $7.75$30.61
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.59
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$30.61
Model agreement2 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HNRG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HNRG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hallador Energy Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $7.75, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $14.81. With 6 out of 8 models flagging downside (-47.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $30.61 (+106.7%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.59 (-96.0%). This +202.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Hallador Energy Company's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HNRG?

8 of 13 models are currently active for HNRG. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HNRG is $7.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.34 on its own, implying -91.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HNRG Rank in Utilities - Independent Power Producers?

Among 10 Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, HNRG ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places HNRG in the top tier.

As a utility sector, Hallador Energy Company operates in a sector where rate base growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HNRG should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is HNRG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HNRG a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Hallador Energy Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Hallador Energy Company's fundamental quality profile registers 8.4/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +202.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HNRG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HNRG's 8 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hallador Energy Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Independent Power Producers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks with 13-model coverage

CEGConstellation Energy CorporationQOC 7.9VSTVistra Corp.QOC 7.6NRGNRG Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2TACTransAlta CorporationQOC 6.2DGXXDigi Power X Inc.QOC 6.0TLNTalen Energy CorporationQOC 5.6OKLOOklo Inc.QOC 5.2ONENONE Nuclear Energy Inc.QOC 5.1KENKenon Holdings Ltd.QOC 2.0

Read investment analysis: CEG · VST · NRG · TAC · DGXX · TLN · OKLO · ONEN · KEN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HNRG?

7 companies across all industries closest to HNRG’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

TEXTerex CorporationQOC 8.4RIGLRigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.4ITUBItaú Unibanco Holding S.A.QOC 8.4CFRCullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.QOC 8.4NATHNathan's Famous, Inc.QOC 8.4STRAStrategic Education, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TEX · RIGL · ITUB · CFR · NATH · STRA · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hallador Energy Company’s Valuation?

What is Hallador Energy Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)'s intrinsic value at $7.75 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.59 to $30.61. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.34 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HNRG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.81, 2 of 8 active models suggest HNRG may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $7.75, 47.7% below the current price of $14.81 — a consensus view that HNRG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hallador Energy Company's business model in Utilities - Independent Power Producers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for HNRG?

Hallador Energy Company's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HNRG?

CirclFi analyzes HNRG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HNRG?

Of the 8 models currently active on HNRG, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $30.61 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.59. CirclFi's published fair value for HNRG is the median of that range, $7.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 387% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HNRG a value trap in 2026?

Hallador Energy Company's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) has a median fair value of $7.75 — 47.7% below the current price of $14.81 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HNRG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HNRG valuation
  • Financial statements: Hallador Energy Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000788965) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HNRG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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