Oklo Inc. (OKLO) Fair Value 2026

OKLO · Electric Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Oklo Inc. (OKLO) trades at $46.24, approximately 132% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $19.94. QOC: 4.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OKLO
Price
$46.24
Quality Score
4.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +75.3% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($46.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$19.94 -56.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$48.11 +4.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$27.17 -41.2%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$81.06 +75.3%

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What Is Oklo Inc. (OKLO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Oklo Inc. at its current price of $46.24. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $36.19 (-21.7% average return), with 6 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $81.06 (+75.3%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $12.21 (-73.6%). This +148.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Oklo Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About OKLO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for OKLO. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates OKLO's intrinsic value at $19.94, implying -56.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OKLO Rank in Electric Services?

Among 72 Electric Services stocks, OKLO ranks #49 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Electric Services Stocks →

As a utility sector, Oklo Inc. operates in a sector where customer growth rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating OKLO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is OKLO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OKLO a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Oklo Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Oklo Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 4.6/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +148.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OKLO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OKLO's 10 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Oklo Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electric Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Electric Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CEPU · VST · NEE · HNRG · TAC

See all Electric Services stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Oklo Inc.

What is Oklo Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Oklo Inc. (OKLO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $19.94. The Quality of Company score is 4.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OKLO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $46.24, 4 of 10 active models suggest OKLO may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Oklo Inc.'s business model in Electric Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.6 mean for OKLO?

Oklo Inc.'s QOC of 4.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OKLO?

CirclFi analyzes OKLO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is OKLO a value trap in 2026?

Oklo Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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