Vistra Corp. (VST) Fair Value 2026

VST · Utilities - Independent Power Producers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Vistra Corp. (VST) trades at $137.09, versus a $61.31 median fair value across its 5 active models — 55.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VST
Price
$137.09
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Vistra Corp. (VST) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Vistra Corp. (VST) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $61.31, 55.3% below the current price of $137.09. Estimates range from $47.02 to $246.95. VST scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. VST’s -55.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Vistra Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VST?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($137.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $78.14 -43.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $47.02 -65.7%
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What Is VST's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $47.02 to $246.95

CirclFi's 5 active models place Vistra Corp. (VST) between $47.02 and $246.95 per share, a spread of 326% of the median. The median of that range — $61.31 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VST, against a current price of $137.09.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$47.02median $61.31$246.95
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$47.02
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$246.95
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VST. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VST, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Vistra Corp. (VST) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Vistra Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $61.31, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $137.09. With 4 out of 5 models flagging downside (-55.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +80.1% (fair value: $246.95), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -65.7% ($47.02). The spread between these extremes — +145.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About VST?

5 of 13 models are currently active for VST. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for VST is $61.31 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VST Rank in Utilities - Independent Power Producers?

Among 9 Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, VST ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Utilities - Independent Power Producers space, Vistra Corp. competes in an environment where customer growth rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is VST a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VST a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Vistra Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Vistra Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +145.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VST's 5 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vistra Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Independent Power Producers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks with 13-model coverage

HNRGHallador Energy CompanyQOC 8.4CEGConstellation Energy CorporationQOC 7.9NRGNRG Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2TACTransAlta CorporationQOC 6.2DGXXDigi Power X Inc.QOC 6.0TLNTalen Energy CorporationQOC 5.6OKLOOklo Inc.QOC 5.2KENKenon Holdings Ltd.QOC 2.0

Read investment analysis: HNRG · CEG · NRG · TAC · DGXX · TLN · OKLO · KEN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VST?

7 companies across all industries closest to VST’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

IDAIDACORP, Inc.QOC 7.6HDSNHudson Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.6HLMNHillman Solutions Corp.QOC 7.6SITCSITE Centers Corp.QOC 7.6LBLandBridge Company LLCQOC 7.6VTOLBristow Group Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IDA · HDSN · HLMN · SITC · LB · VTOL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Vistra Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Vistra Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Vistra Corp. (VST)'s intrinsic value at $61.31 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $47.02 to $246.95. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VST overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $137.09, 1 of 5 active models suggest VST may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $61.31, 55.3% below the current price of $137.09 — a consensus view that VST is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vistra Corp.'s business model in Utilities - Independent Power Producers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for VST?

Vistra Corp.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VST?

CirclFi analyzes VST with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VST?

Of the 5 models currently active on VST, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $246.95 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $47.02. CirclFi's published fair value for VST is the median of that range, $61.31, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 326% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VST a value trap in 2026?

Vistra Corp.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Vistra Corp. (VST) has a median fair value of $61.31 — 55.3% below the current price of $137.09 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VST/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VST valuation
  • Financial statements: Vistra Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001692819) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VST as of ; valuations recomputed .

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