What Is Vistra Corp. (VST) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Vistra Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $102.54, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $158.11. With 9 out of 12 models flagging downside (-35.1% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +90.0% (fair value: $300.46), while EPV is the most conservative at -98.2% ($2.78). The spread between these extremes — +188.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About VST?
12 of 13 models are currently active for VST. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates VST's intrinsic value at $17.02, implying -89.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does VST Rank in Electric Services?
Among 70 Electric Services stocks, VST ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places VST in the top tier.
See all Most Undervalued Electric Services Stocks →
Within the Electric Services space, Vistra Corp. competes in an environment where customer growth rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is VST a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VST a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Vistra Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Vistra Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.5/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +188.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every VST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across VST's 12 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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