Ormat Technologies, Inc. (ORA) Fair Value 2026

ORA · Utilities - Renewable ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Ormat Technologies, Inc. (ORA) trades at $103.04, versus a $33.43 median fair value across its 9 active models — 67.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $79.42.

Key Facts

Ticker
ORA
Price
$103.04
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ormat Technologies, Inc. (ORA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Ormat Technologies, Inc. (ORA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $33.43, 67.6% below the current price of $103.04. Estimates range from $5.43 to $79.42. ORA scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ORA’s -67.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ormat Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ORA?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($103.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $79.42 -22.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $33.43 -67.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.50 -85.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.43 -94.7%
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What Is ORA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $5.43 to $79.42

CirclFi's 9 active models place Ormat Technologies, Inc. (ORA) between $5.43 and $79.42 per share, a spread of 221% of the median. The median of that range — $33.43 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ORA, against a current price of $103.04.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Bayesian DCF
$5.43median $33.43$79.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$5.43
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$79.42
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ORA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ORA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ormat Technologies, Inc. (ORA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ormat Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $33.43. Trading at its current price of $103.04, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -67.6%. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at -22.9% (fair value: $79.42), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -94.7% ($5.43). The spread between these extremes — +71.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ORA?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ORA. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ORA is $33.43 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $79.42 on its own, implying -22.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ORA Rank in Utilities - Renewable?

Among 24 Utilities - Renewable stocks, ORA ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

Ormat Technologies, Inc.'s positioning within the Utilities - Renewable segment means that reserve life index plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including capital discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ORA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ORA a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Ormat Technologies, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ormat Technologies, Inc. scores 7.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +71.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ORA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ORA's 9 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ormat Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Renewable Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Utilities - Renewable stocks with 13-model coverage

CWENClearway Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6RNWReNew Energy Global PlcQOC 6.6BNRGBrenmiller Energy LtdQOC 2.2FLNCFluence Energy, Inc.QOC 6.6WAVEEco Wave Power Global AB (publ)QOC 2.5STEMStem, Inc.QOC 6.5MWHSOLV Energy, Inc.QOC 5.5WNDWSolarWindow Technologies, Inc.QOC 4.9CPWROcean Thermal Energy CorporationQOC 4.2

Read investment analysis: CWEN · RNW · BNRG · FLNC · WAVE · STEM · MWH · WNDW · CPWR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ORA?

7 companies across all industries closest to ORA’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

CVBFCVB Financial Corp.QOC 7.3LNTAlliant Energy CorporationQOC 7.3BNBrookfield CorporationQOC 7.3HIWHighwoods Properties, Inc.QOC 7.3VREXVarex Imaging CorporationQOC 7.3SONOSonos, Inc.QOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CVBF · LNT · BN · HIW · VREX · SONO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ormat Technologies, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ormat Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ormat Technologies, Inc. (ORA)'s intrinsic value at $33.43 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.43 to $79.42. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $79.42 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ORA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $103.04, 0 of 9 active models suggest ORA may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $33.43, 67.6% below the current price of $103.04 — a consensus view that ORA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ormat Technologies, Inc.'s business model in Utilities - Renewable.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for ORA?

Ormat Technologies, Inc.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ORA?

CirclFi analyzes ORA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ORA?

Of the 9 models currently active on ORA, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $79.42 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $5.43. CirclFi's published fair value for ORA is the median of that range, $33.43, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 221% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ORA a value trap in 2026?

Ormat Technologies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Ormat Technologies, Inc. (ORA) has a median fair value of $33.43 — 67.6% below the current price of $103.04 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ORA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ORA valuation
  • Financial statements: Ormat Technologies, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001296445) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ORA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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